Monthly Archives: October 2010

NFL Week 8 Predictions

I somehow convinced myself that this week was Daylight Savings, so here are your somewhat belated picks for the week.  If you want to think of something interesting, you might note that Vegas has the home team for every game … Continue reading

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All Players Have Tails

My last post talked about the fact that unlikely things are bound to happen, and so we have to think carefully about what it means when something unusual happens.  Then I was looking at Arturo’s tour of the WoW family … Continue reading

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Things Happen

The recent death of Paul the octopus and the start of the NBA season reminded me that it’s always good to think about what exactly statistics tell us about the world.  If you don’t remember Paul, he correctly predicted all … Continue reading

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The Raiders Make a Move

This past weekend the Raiders took the Broncos out to the woodshed to the tune of a 59-14 victory.  They scored through the air and on the ground; they scored on an interception return and with a field goal.  They … Continue reading

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Back in the Saddle

Coming off of the Madden Curse I was hopeful that the model would rebound, and it certainly did.  It was also an exciting weekend if  you enjoyed scoring; it was the second-highest scoring weekend in 20 years, highlighted by 76 … Continue reading

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NBA Stats Smackdown 2011: Team Predictions and Summary

The final piece of the Smackdown predictions is to predict a win total for each team in the league. As I noted in my first pick, I’m at a bit of a disadvantage here.  Arturo has developed a sophisticated model … Continue reading

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NBA Stats Smackdown 2011: Most Improved

The last player picks I need to make for the Stats Smackdown is Most Improved Player (MIP).  For the wins produced side of things, the player needs to be within 750 minutes of what he played last year and the … Continue reading

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Sabermetrics Vs. Academia Vs. The Media

Phil Birnbaum recently took everyone to task for a paper that came out in Psychological Science looking at the influence of round numbers on goals and motivation.  His main complaint is that the NY Times article reports that this Psych … Continue reading

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NFL Week 7 Predictions

There are a couple of interesting games this week in terms of the ‘major’ storylines.  Brett Favre returns to Green Bay, Dallas tries to save their season (again) against the Giants, the Eagles and Titans have a good game.  I … Continue reading

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NBA Stats Smackdown 2011: MVP and ROY

Next in the series of picks for the Stat Geek Smackdown is MVP, but first I have to revise a pick already.  I went with Mike Miller for Wins Produced Sixth Man of the Year, but he’s out until January … Continue reading

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