Monthly Archives: June 2011

Retrodiction Contest Part 3: The Conclusions

If you haven’t already, make sure you check out part 1 for the methods and part 2 for the results.  In this post I’ll talk about what the results for the retrodiction contest might mean and some caveats.

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Retrodiction Contest Update Part 2: The Results

In part 1 I laid out the methods for generating retrodictions for Wins Produced, ezPM, RAPM, and APM.  Here in part 2, you get the goods.

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A Brief Word on JJ Barea

The sports stats world is a-twitter over a piece by Jonah Lehrer at the new Grantland site.  Essentially, he says that stats have become important enough in sports that people are starting to ignore the immeasurables; it isn’t that the … Continue reading

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Retrodiction Contest Update Part 1: The Method

In my last couple posts, I looked at the ability of a few NBA player productivity metrics to predict seasons that have already occurred based on data from the prior season: using 2010 to predict 2011, 2009 to predict 2010, … Continue reading

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50 Wins in Minnesota?

Bill Simmons was working his trade machine magic again today and thinks he came up with two trades that will get Minnesota to 50 wins next season.  In case you hadn’t noticed, the Wolves only won 17 games last year, … Continue reading

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A Great Example

My last post talked a bit about analyzing regression results and thinking statistically in general.  Today I read a blog about a psychology article that fits well, so I’m going to talk about that a bit.  No sports, but more … Continue reading

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Further Thoughts on Significance and Regression

Phil Birnbaum put up a post yesterday discussing the use (misuse?) of .05 as the p value indicating a significant result.  P values have come up on my blog before, notably in the discussion of how important usage is, so … Continue reading

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Predicting the Past: 2010 Competition

Last time I looked at the ability of three different metrics (ezPM, WP, and RAPM) to predict how teams would do this past season.  That post has all the details, so you should give it a read.  It turned out … Continue reading

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Predicting the Past: 2011 competition

Earlier in the season I took a look at how well a couple of statistical models (ezPM and Wins Produced) could predict team results.  This isn’t impressive on its face; everyone makes predictions.  But what I wanted to do was … Continue reading

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