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Monthly Archives: September 2011
Competitive Balance Probably Won’t Help the NBA
I was disappointed in Henry’s True Hoop post about competitive balance from today. The important parts are more or less based on claims that are known to be false. Henry’s post is laid out by points so I’ll follow suit.
Et Tu, Reyes?
I’m not a big baseball fan, but since I recently moved (back) to St. Louis I was keeping track of all the craziness that happened last night. Beyond the four games with wild card implications, though, apparently something else ‘crazy’ … Continue reading
How Bad Should NFL Predictions Be?
Phil has a post questioning how bad NFL expert picks are. Namely, Freakonomics claimed that three prominent sports sources were only 36% accurate at picking division winners before the season started. Since there are four teams in each division, dumb … Continue reading
NFL Week 3 Round-Up
You may have heard that after three weeks there are only three undefeated teams left. It took overtime, but the Lions are one of them. It isn’t too often that you get to say that something has literally never happened … Continue reading
NFL Week 3 Predictions
Monday Night Update: Bodog currently has the Cowboys as 3.5 point favorites at even odds; Luigi would say to take the ‘Skins. The moneyline is -165 for Dallas and +145 for Washington; Luigi would say to narrowly take Dallas (versus … Continue reading
The Mike Martz Sack Problem
One of the things many football fans might look for tomorrow (especially if they’re Packers fans) is how many tickets Clay Matthews gets to sell for the gun show. There’s a good chance the number will be high since they’re … Continue reading
Parity in the NBA?
Dre at Wages of Wins has a post claiming that parity is impossible in the NBA. I decided to be a little contrary and see if it were possible (and I see now that people in the comments have suggested … Continue reading
Break Up the Lions!
That’s the text I got on Sunday after the Lions beat the Chiefs in ridiculous fashion, 48-3. The Lions are honestly making me uncomfortable; I prefer my team to be the underdog and take some of the pressure of high … Continue reading
NFL Week 2 Predictions
Last year I spent some time posting predictions from two different models (Mario and Luigi), which were really a set of regression models trying to guess the point differential, total points, and winner for NFL games. It turned out that … Continue reading
Sports are in your Brain
Scorecasting covers a number of topics, but the majority of the book is about how sports performance, including that of referees and coaches, is dominated by the fact that sports are played by people and people have biases. One that … Continue reading
