It was pretty much the opposite of this. The Tigers were knocked out of the MLB playoffs. The Wolverines were exposed by hated rivals Michigan State (I knew Michigan was overrated, but I was hoping it would hold out until the Nebraska game, or Illinois in the worst case). And the Lions lost to the 49ers, leaving the Packers as the only undefeated team in the NFL. On top of all that, the model sucked this weekend. The Jets even won convincingly last night so I didn’t get any relief on Monday. I hate the Jets and the Dolphins just threw chances out the window in the first half (I didn’t watch the second, but I don’t think it got any better). Let’s just sum up the carnage and move on with our lives.
The one thing the model did right this weekend was hit the over/under. Luigi was 10-3, putting him at 40-33-2 for the year. It also did an ok job with picking outright winners, going 8-5 and thus 44-30 on the season. But when you add in the moneyline, it was only 2-7, correctly picking Tampa and New England as worthwhile bets. That puts moneyline picks at 19-27.
In terms of the spread, Luigi was a terrible 2-9-2 this week. The two pushes were Giants-Buffalo and Oakland-Cleveland. It correctly picked the Packers to cover their big spread and Jacksonville to keep it close against the Steelers. The rest was a waste of time. In all games, Luigi is now 35-34-3. If you take out the games it would have skipped (Cincy-Indy, Oakland-Cleveland, and Tampa-New Orleans), Luigi was 2-7-1. On the season it’s 34-26-2. So after six weeks you can see that Luigi is above chance in games it ‘likes’ and only 1-8-1 in ‘close call’ games. I would expect the close calls to actually be more even, but the point stands that it’s a good idea to pass on some games. The SuperContest picks would have been Carolina, Buffalo, Miami, Houston, and Green Bay, so those would have gone 1-3-1 and put Luigi at 17-11-2 on the year (against Bodog lines, not Hilton) and 18 points.
Finally, we have Bill Simmons and his lines. Bill went 4-7-2 while I went 2-9-2; I think he had pretty much the same lines as Bodog this week. That puts him at 45-40-5 and me at 48-37-5, so I’m still up a few games. Maybe I can make that comfort last to next weekend.