NFL Week 17 Round-Up

With the Giants’ win in the books, the 2011-2012 regular season is over.  I’ll have playoff predictions and all that good stuff later in the week, but here’s the summary for this week’s predictions.

The over/under continued to be a puzzle for Luigi.  It went 7-9 this week for an overall record of 105-129-6.  Last year it went  119-115-5, so I think it’s fair to say that the over/under is just throwing darts at the wall.

Despite the craziness of it being week 17, the straight-winner predictions went 14-2 for a season record of 154-86.  Last year Luigi was 143-97, so across two seasons it’s 61.9% accurate.  That’s a tough number to evaluate since we know upsets will happen; the model should be wrong sometimes.  But it’s better than the 56% you’d get from just taking the home team every time, so that’s a plus.  With the moneyline factored in, Luigi was only 1-5 this week for a season total of 53-88.  Last year it was 46-79.  That total last year was good enough to be slightly in the black since Luigi finds the underdogs to generally be a better price, but this year the number is solidly in the red.  I’ll give this and the over/under a look in the offseason.

In all games against the spread, Luigi was 7-8-1 (the Cards-Seahawks pushed) for a season total of 120-111-9.  Last year Luigi picked all games at 126-111-3 for a two-year total of 246-222-12 or 52.5%.  But some of those games were too close to call, and I recommended avoiding the Packers and Texans games since they had nothing to play for.  That leaves 10 games, in which Luigi went 5-5.  Not a great end to the season, but the ‘pickable’ game season record is 99-83-7.  Last year that same record was 98-93-2, so Luigi’s two year record is 197-176-9 or 52.8%.  That’s good enough to break even if you bet all your games at -110.

This week’s SuperContest picks, made up of the best 5 from each week, would have been the Bears, the Bengals, the Rams, the Bills, and the Chargers (once again skipping the Packers and Texans).  Those picks were 3-2 for a season total of 48-33-4 for 50 points.  I believe that’s the general threshold for making the money, which isn’t bad since I scored myself against Bodog/Bovada lines, which are tougher than the ones the Hilton players seem to go against.  Last year the top 5 picks from each week were 43-37 (I think; I counted by hand) plus whatever I would have gotten from week 1.  So that’s fairly consistent.  If I had gone 3-2 in week 1 last year, the two-year Luigi total would be 94-72-4 or 56.6%.  So it seems there might be some benefit to selecting the games where Luigi disagrees most from the spread.

Finally we get to Bill Simmons and his lines.  Last season he went 131-119-6, so I thought he would probably pick well again and give me a challenge.  This week against his lines Bill went 5-9-2, with the Browns pushing against his line as well as the Cardinals.  That gives him a season total of 122-122-12, which I’m sure he’s disappointed in and will use as an excuse to say to ignore his playoff predictions.  Bill’s two year total is 253-241-18, or 51.2%.  Luigi went 130-106-4 against Bill’s lines last year, not making picks in week 1.  This week Luigi was 7-7-2 for a season total of 135-109-12, beating Bill by 13 games.  Luigi’s two-year total is 265-215-16 or 55.2%.  I would be willing to guess that the top-5 picks would be closer to 57 or maybe even 58% if I used Bill’s lines to select them, which would be pretty impressive.

I’ve pointed it out before, but notice that Luigi was 55.3% in all games against Bill’s lines but only 51.9% against Bodog’s.  I think Bill gets his lines a) from the Hilton and b) on Thursday night so that his column can go up on Friday (maybe even earlier).  This supports two things I learned over break: Bodog has tougher lines than a lot of places (both Vegas and other online sportsbooks), and the early lines are generally easier than the closing lines (which fit with Bodog since I generally get my numbers Sunday morning).  At any rate, while it’s nice to beat Bill in general, I’m happier that Luigi did well against his lines again this year even though Bill fell off.  It makes me believe that Luigi is doing something consistent across seasons as opposed to simply doing well in one year where most people (or at least Bill Simmons) could do well.

So that sums up Luigi’s regular season.  Last year the playoffs were tough on the model; it only picked five winners correctly, including the Packers in the Super Bowl, out of 11 games.  But it did better against the spread, going 7-4.  Hopefully that trend continues this year.

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One Response to NFL Week 17 Round-Up

  1. Pingback: Getting Ready for Some Football | Sport Skeptic

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