NFL Week 10 Picks

It’s been a pretty solid week, and particularly weekend, so far.  I did a couple of fun runs, and even came in fifth in my age group in one.  Went to see Skyfall, which was good.  Michigan pulled out a come-from-behind win with their second string quarterback.  Work has been going pretty well.  Can my luck continue?  All that’s left is a Lions victory and for Luigi to have a good week of picks.  Let’s see what they look like, and I’ll focus on a few of the games that are predicted to be pretty one-sided.

The highest-scoring predicted blow-out is Patriots over Bills, with an over/under of 53.5.  That seems fair given that their game earlier this season had a final of 52-28.  Buffalo was up 21-7 at one point, but the Patriots decided to remind the Bills that they’re rarely good after week 3 these days.  And it’s true that Buffalo isn’t especially good; their three wins are against Kansas City, Cleveland, and Arizona in overtime while they’ve lost to the Pats (obviously), Jets, 49ers, Titans, and Texans.  So why might I predict that game to be a bit closer than the two touchdown line?  Mostly because the Patriots have been less than invincible (they’ve been pretty good but still managed to lose three games, so things could turn weird) and because the Bills have essentially done what an ok team should do.  They beat the bad teams they played, except for losing to Tennessee by one, and they lost to good teams.  And the good teams they’ve played have been top teams; San Fran and Houston besides New England.  So essentially with anything in between terrible and very good they split with the Jets and Arizona.  I think the Bills are bad and the Pats are good, but something a little less than 13 might be right.  That being said, if the Patriots win by 30 I wouldn’t be surprised.  If that’s the case, I would feel pretty good about the over even if the models don’t think it’ll happen.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Indy 43 43.41 40.33 43.23
Minnesota Detroit 45.5 44.94 43.8 44.59
Cincy Giants 48.5 48.86 50.43 47.43
Miami Tennessee 44 45.17 42.47 44.57
NE Buffalo 53.5 49.23 47.04 47.85
NO Atlanta 53.5 48.79 51.88 47.49
TB SD 47 44.51 47.3 44.27
Carolina Denver 47 48.67 52.31 47.39
Baltimore Oakland 47.5 46.69 39.23 45.86
Seattle Jets 38.5 42.88 38.95 43.1
Philly Dallas 44 42.95 43.42 43.1
SF StL 38 42.38 40.92 43.11
Chicago Houston 40 47.01 46.95 46.73
Pittsburgh KC 41 42.04 38.17 42.52

Speaking of good teams, another one-sided game should be 49ers-Rams where the 49ers are favored by 13.  Again, the models don’t think it’ll quite get that high.  Part of the reason is that it’s simply hard to get the predictions up that high; double-digit wins aren’t predicted very often.  And while the 49ers have been good, they’ve also been underwhelming a couple times this year.  They absolutely laid an egg against the Giants.  The Rams are not the Giants, but the 49ers also had trouble with Seattle, leaving the game close, and lost to Minnesota.  The Rams have also been a bit better than I mentally peg them; they have three wins, over Washington, Arizona, and Seattle (not a murderer’s row, but a decent group).  All five teams they’ve lost to (Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Green Bay, and New England) have been pretty decent.  I don’t think that makes the Rams good enough to win, although all three models think the moneyline makes it worthwhile.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Indy 165 -175 0.352 0.469 0.51
Minnesota Detroit 130 -140 0.485 0.49 0.539
Cincy Giants 190 -210 0.407 0.521 0.519
Miami Tennessee -255 235 0.727 0.522 0.612
NE Buffalo -680 555 0.726 0.567 0.631
NO Atlanta 112 -122 0.423 0.527 0.527
TB SD -165 155 0.736 0.516 0.617
Carolina Denver 175 -190 0.426 0.47 0.521
Baltimore Oakland -330 300 0.708 0.596 0.61
Seattle Jets -235 215 0.621 0.553 0.583
Philly Dallas 117 -127 0.462 0.513 0.546
SF StL -630 520 0.744 0.515 0.629
Chicago Houston -125 105 0.595 0.443 0.554
Pittsburgh KC -600 450 0.75 0.636 0.629

The last big favorite comes on Monday night where the Steelers are 12.5 point favorites over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have been truly awful; they managed to beat the Saints in overtime and kept their game with the Ravens close but have lost every other game by at least 10.  They have never held a lead this season.  They have exactly one offensive weapon, running back Jamaal Charles, but they don’t give him the ball enough; he’s 15th in rush attempts and receptions.  Not that running all the time would necessarily help the Chiefs, but it can’t hurt, right?  This is the team who drew cheers when their starting QB got injured.  All that being said, Pittsburgh has been inconsistent.  They lost to Oakland and Tennessee and barely beat the Eagles.  They seem to be doing a bit better recently, but their offense still isn’t quite at a top-of-the-league level.  I fully expect the Steelers to win, and it could be handily, but maybe the Chiefs manage to keep it a little close.  I should say though, that of the three games I’ve detailed the Steelers are the ones expected to get closest to their line.

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Indy 3 110 -4.37 -3.27 -2.82
Minnesota Detroit 3 -115 0.3 -1.36 0.51
Cincy Giants 4.5 -110 -2.48 -0.63 -1.51
Miami Tennessee -6.5 -110 8.63 2.56 7.18
NE Buffalo -13.5 -110 7.68 7.03 7.06
NO Atlanta 1.5 -110 -2.83 1.07 -1.62
TB SD -3 -115 6.87 6.4 6.25
Carolina Denver 4 -110 -1.97 -0.45 -1.15
Baltimore Oakland -7.5 -110 6.69 5.33 5.92
Seattle Jets -5.5 -110 4.79 0.65 4.29
Philly Dallas 1 100 -0.95 -2.32 0.05
SF StL -13 -110 8.47 3.76 7.55
Chicago Houston -1.5 -110 2.09 2.29 1.41
Pittsburgh KC -12.5 -110 9.36 4.69 8.09

Let’s wrap up with Bill Simmons.  I need a good week against Bill; let’s hope he’s wrong about the Giants, Pats, Seahawks, Pats, and Steelers.  And that they’re all wrong about the Vikings.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Jacksonville Indy 3.5 Jacksonville Indy Jacksonville Jacksonville
Minnesota Detroit 2 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
Cincy Giants 3.5 Giants Cincy Cincy Cincy
Miami Tennessee -6 Miami Miami Tennessee Miami
NE Buffalo -11 NE Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
NO Atlanta 2.5 Atlanta Atlanta NO NO
TB SD -3 TB TB TB TB
Carolina Denver 4.5 Carolina Carolina Carolina Carolina
Baltimore Oakland -7.5 Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland
Seattle Jets -6 Seattle Jets Jets Jets
Philly Dallas 1.5 Dallas Philly Dallas Philly
SF StL -11 SF StL StL StL
Chicago Houston -1.5 Houston Chicago Chicago Houston
Pittsburgh KC -12 Pittsburgh KC KC KC
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2 Responses to NFL Week 10 Picks

  1. Good call on Patriots/Bills and Rams/49ers being closer than first glance would suggest.

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