NFL Week 10 Picks

It’s been a pretty solid week, and particularly weekend, so far.  I did a couple of fun runs, and even came in fifth in my age group in one.  Went to see Skyfall, which was good.  Michigan pulled out a come-from-behind win with their second string quarterback.  Work has been going pretty well.  Can my luck continue?  All that’s left is a Lions victory and for Luigi to have a good week of picks.  Let’s see what they look like, and I’ll focus on a few of the games that are predicted to be pretty one-sided.

The highest-scoring predicted blow-out is Patriots over Bills, with an over/under of 53.5.  That seems fair given that their game earlier this season had a final of 52-28.  Buffalo was up 21-7 at one point, but the Patriots decided to remind the Bills that they’re rarely good after week 3 these days.  And it’s true that Buffalo isn’t especially good; their three wins are against Kansas City, Cleveland, and Arizona in overtime while they’ve lost to the Pats (obviously), Jets, 49ers, Titans, and Texans.  So why might I predict that game to be a bit closer than the two touchdown line?  Mostly because the Patriots have been less than invincible (they’ve been pretty good but still managed to lose three games, so things could turn weird) and because the Bills have essentially done what an ok team should do.  They beat the bad teams they played, except for losing to Tennessee by one, and they lost to good teams.  And the good teams they’ve played have been top teams; San Fran and Houston besides New England.  So essentially with anything in between terrible and very good they split with the Jets and Arizona.  I think the Bills are bad and the Pats are good, but something a little less than 13 might be right.  That being said, if the Patriots win by 30 I wouldn’t be surprised.  If that’s the case, I would feel pretty good about the over even if the models don’t think it’ll happen.

home	away	Over/Under	Luigi	Yoshi 1	Yoshi 2
Jacksonville	Indy	43	43.41	40.33	43.23
Minnesota	Detroit	45.5	44.94	43.8	44.59
Cincy	Giants	48.5	48.86	50.43	47.43
Miami	Tennessee	44	45.17	42.47	44.57
NE	Buffalo	53.5	49.23	47.04	47.85
NO	Atlanta	53.5	48.79	51.88	47.49
TB	SD	47	44.51	47.3	44.27
Carolina	Denver	47	48.67	52.31	47.39
Baltimore	Oakland	47.5	46.69	39.23	45.86
Seattle	Jets	38.5	42.88	38.95	43.1
Philly	Dallas	44	42.95	43.42	43.1
SF	StL	38	42.38	40.92	43.11
Chicago	Houston	40	47.01	46.95	46.73
Pittsburgh	KC	41	42.04	38.17	42.52

Speaking of good teams, another one-sided game should be 49ers-Rams where the 49ers are favored by 13.  Again, the models don’t think it’ll quite get that high.  Part of the reason is that it’s simply hard to get the predictions up that high; double-digit wins aren’t predicted very often.  And while the 49ers have been good, they’ve also been underwhelming a couple times this year.  They absolutely laid an egg against the Giants.  The Rams are not the Giants, but the 49ers also had trouble with Seattle, leaving the game close, and lost to Minnesota.  The Rams have also been a bit better than I mentally peg them; they have three wins, over Washington, Arizona, and Seattle (not a murderer’s row, but a decent group).  All five teams they’ve lost to (Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Green Bay, and New England) have been pretty decent.  I don’t think that makes the Rams good enough to win, although all three models think the moneyline makes it worthwhile.

home	away	Home Line	Away Line	Luigi	Yoshi 1	Yoshi 2
Jacksonville	Indy	165	-175	0.352	0.469	0.51
Minnesota	Detroit	130	-140	0.485	0.49	0.539
Cincy	Giants	190	-210	0.407	0.521	0.519
Miami	Tennessee	-255	235	0.727	0.522	0.612
NE	Buffalo	-680	555	0.726	0.567	0.631
NO	Atlanta	112	-122	0.423	0.527	0.527
TB	SD	-165	155	0.736	0.516	0.617
Carolina	Denver	175	-190	0.426	0.47	0.521
Baltimore	Oakland	-330	300	0.708	0.596	0.61
Seattle	Jets	-235	215	0.621	0.553	0.583
Philly	Dallas	117	-127	0.462	0.513	0.546
SF	StL	-630	520	0.744	0.515	0.629
Chicago	Houston	-125	105	0.595	0.443	0.554
Pittsburgh	KC	-600	450	0.75	0.636	0.629

The last big favorite comes on Monday night where the Steelers are 12.5 point favorites over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have been truly awful; they managed to beat the Saints in overtime and kept their game with the Ravens close but have lost every other game by at least 10.  They have never held a lead this season.  They have exactly one offensive weapon, running back Jamaal Charles, but they don’t give him the ball enough; he’s 15th in rush attempts and receptions.  Not that running all the time would necessarily help the Chiefs, but it can’t hurt, right?  This is the team who drew cheers when their starting QB got injured.  All that being said, Pittsburgh has been inconsistent.  They lost to Oakland and Tennessee and barely beat the Eagles.  They seem to be doing a bit better recently, but their offense still isn’t quite at a top-of-the-league level.  I fully expect the Steelers to win, and it could be handily, but maybe the Chiefs manage to keep it a little close.  I should say though, that of the three games I’ve detailed the Steelers are the ones expected to get closest to their line.

home	away	Spread	Odds	Luigi	Yoshi 1	Yoshi 2
Jacksonville	Indy	3	110	-4.37	-3.27	-2.82
Minnesota	Detroit	3	-115	0.3	-1.36	0.51
Cincy	Giants	4.5	-110	-2.48	-0.63	-1.51
Miami	Tennessee	-6.5	-110	8.63	2.56	7.18
NE	Buffalo	-13.5	-110	7.68	7.03	7.06
NO	Atlanta	1.5	-110	-2.83	1.07	-1.62
TB	SD	-3	-115	6.87	6.4	6.25
Carolina	Denver	4	-110	-1.97	-0.45	-1.15
Baltimore	Oakland	-7.5	-110	6.69	5.33	5.92
Seattle	Jets	-5.5	-110	4.79	0.65	4.29
Philly	Dallas	1	100	-0.95	-2.32	0.05
SF	StL	-13	-110	8.47	3.76	7.55
Chicago	Houston	-1.5	-110	2.09	2.29	1.41
Pittsburgh	KC	-12.5	-110	9.36	4.69	8.09

Let’s wrap up with Bill Simmons.  I need a good week against Bill; let’s hope he’s wrong about the Giants, Pats, Seahawks, Pats, and Steelers.  And that they’re all wrong about the Vikings.

home	away	Simmons Spread	Simmons	Luigi	Yoshi 1	Yoshi 2
Jacksonville	Indy	3.5	Jacksonville	Indy	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Minnesota	Detroit	2	Minnesota	Minnesota	Minnesota	Minnesota
Cincy	Giants	3.5	Giants	Cincy	Cincy	Cincy
Miami	Tennessee	-6	Miami	Miami	Tennessee	Miami
NE	Buffalo	-11	NE	Buffalo	Buffalo	Buffalo
NO	Atlanta	2.5	Atlanta	Atlanta	NO	NO
TB	SD	-3	TB	TB	TB	TB
Carolina	Denver	4.5	Carolina	Carolina	Carolina	Carolina
Baltimore	Oakland	-7.5	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland
Seattle	Jets	-6	Seattle	Jets	Jets	Jets
Philly	Dallas	1.5	Dallas	Philly	Dallas	Philly
SF	StL	-11	SF	StL	StL	StL
Chicago	Houston	-1.5	Houston	Chicago	Chicago	Houston
Pittsburgh	KC	-12	Pittsburgh	KC	KC	KC

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