NFL Week 11 – All of It

I was at a conference last week and left too early for there to be any of my usual comparisons available – no Simmons, not even the SuperContest numbers were posted yet.  So this post is the predictions for the now past games and the results all together (I’m writing this as the Pats and Panthers go at it, so I can post as soon as the game ends).  I’ll try to do something a little less dry before Thursday, like update the playoff situation.

The spread picks:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Indy 3 -110 -0.57 -4.15 -0.1
Buffalo Jets 2 -110 -1.1 -3.22 -0.06
Chicago Baltimore -3.5 -110 4.58 -1.33 4.3
Cincy Cleveland 3.5 -110 4.52 -1.03 4.05
Miami SD 2.5 -100 -1.82 -9.86 -1.09
Philly Washington -4.5 -110 5.73 -0.72 5.18
Pittsburgh Detroit 3 -100 -1.69 -6.55 -0.72
TB Atlanta -2 -110 0.74 -4.86 1.09
Jacksonville Arizona 9 -110 -5.77 -6.96 -3.36
Houston Oakland -10.5 -110 -0.24 -0.89 0.96
Denver KC -7.5 -110 7.24 0.42 5.92
NO SF -3 -120 5.83 -0.28 5.31
Seattle Minnesota -13 -110 10.52 5.89 8.58
Giants GB -3 -115 -3.68 -7.25 -2.8
Carolina NE -3 -105 4.81 -0.81 3.59

In all games Luigi was 7-6-2 (our first two push week thanks to Colts-Titans and Saints-49ers), but would have passed on three games and gone 5-5-2 on the rest. That gives Luigi a total of 72-70-4/57-53-3. Yoshi 1 was 3-10-2/3-10-2 (making a pick in every game) for a total of 63-79-4/53-66-4, and Yoshi 2 was 7-6-2/5-4-2 for a total of 69-73-4/55-60-3. The consensus picks, where all three models agree, were 2-3 for a 40-36-1 total.

Luigi’s SuperContest picks would have been Packers +5 (thanks to Rodgers’ injury), Oakland +7, and then there was a large drop to Saints -3, Panthers -2.5, and Tampa +1.5 (the next game in was Eagles -3.5).  Those picks were 3-1-1, and would have been 4-0-1 if I could ignore the Packers pick.  That puts my record at 31-22-2 for 31 points.  Yoshi 1 would have gone with the Packers, Chargers -1.5, Oakland, Chiefs +8, and Vikings +12.5 (next game in: Browns +5.5).  Those picks were 1-4 regardless of Green Bay for a record of 25-29-1.  Yoshi 2 had the Packers, Oakland, Vikings, Jacksonville +7, and Tampa (edging Titans +2.5, Saints -3, and Chiefs +8).  Those picks would be 2-3 for a total of 29-25-1.

Bill Simmons is up next:

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Indy 3 Tennessee Tennessee Indy Tennessee
Buffalo Jets 0 Jets Jets Jets Jets
Chicago Baltimore -3 Chicago Chicago Baltimore Chicago
Cincy Cleveland -6 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
Miami SD 2.5 SD Miami SD Miami
Philly Washington -4 Philly Philly Washington Philly
Pittsburgh Detroit 2.5 Detroit Pittsburgh Detroit Pittsburgh
TB Atlanta 2 TB TB Atlanta TB
Jacksonville Arizona 9 Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville
Houston Oakland -7 Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland
Denver KC -7.5 KC KC KC KC
NO SF -3.5 NO NO SF NO
Seattle Minnesota -12.5 Seattle Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
Giants GB -5 GB GB GB GB
Carolina NE -3 Carolina Carolina NE Carolina

Using his lines, Bill Simmons went 5-8-2. Luigi went 6-7-2, Yoshi 1 went 2-11-2, and Yoshi 2 went 6-7-2.  That makes the counts Bill 58-69-5, Luigi 67-60-5, Yoshi 1 66-61-5, and Yoshi 2 62-65-5.  Like last week, some close calls on the exact number made differences, like getting Chicago at -3 instead of -3.5 or Saints -3.5 instead of -3, and apparently Carolina -3 if you could have maybe found them at -4 somewhere for a push.

Here are the moneyline picks:

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Indy 130 -140 0.477 0.544 0.493
Buffalo Jets 115 -135 0.49 0.546 0.518
Chicago Baltimore -360 300 0.689 0.557 0.657
Cincy Cleveland -150 130 0.656 0.598 0.63
Miami SD 130 -150 0.448 0.557 0.473
Philly Washington -210 175 0.666 0.548 0.649
Pittsburgh Detroit 140 -160 0.465 0.541 0.491
TB Atlanta -130 110 0.543 0.557 0.549
Jacksonville Arizona 310 -370 0.359 0.548 0.429
Houston Oakland -320 260 0.498 0.557 0.539
Denver KC -315 285 0.746 0.569 0.686
NO SF -170 150 0.682 0.559 0.658
Seattle Minnesota -600 450 0.804 0.557 0.746
Giants GB -225 185 0.363 0.557 0.404
Carolina NE -155 135 0.63 0.551 0.589

Luigi only skipped three games, which is unusual, but went 7-5 for a positive week.  Yoshi 1 came to vastly different conclusions and had a losing week and Yoshi 2 also had a positive week with very similar picks to Luigi.

And I haven’t been keeping track of the over/under picks because the model isn’t very good, but here are the predictions anyway as usual:

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Indy 42 44.52 42.49 44.49
Buffalo Jets 40.5 42.95 42.49 43.32
Chicago Baltimore 43.5 45.97 43.66 45.71
Cincy Cleveland 44 41.88 43.05 42.57
Miami SD 45.5 45.94 43.32 45.8
Philly Washington 52.5 49.72 42.49 48.69
Pittsburgh Detroit 45.5 48.04 43.45 47.14
TB Atlanta 43.5 43.57 42.49 43.74
Jacksonville Arizona 41.5 43.36 42.49 43.03
Houston Oakland 41.5 42.17 42.84 42.73
Denver KC 49 49.52 44.21 48.4
NO SF 48 46.98 43.2 46.87
Seattle Minnesota 45.5 45.86 42.49 45.75
Giants GB 42 48.31 42.49 47.39
Carolina NE 47.5 43.3 42.49 44.1
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One Response to NFL Week 11 – All of It

  1. Damian says:

    better late than never!

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