I was at a conference last week and left too early for there to be any of my usual comparisons available – no Simmons, not even the SuperContest numbers were posted yet. So this post is the predictions for the now past games and the results all together (I’m writing this as the Pats and Panthers go at it, so I can post as soon as the game ends). I’ll try to do something a little less dry before Thursday, like update the playoff situation. Continue reading
The big news from the past weekend is probably that every team has won a game now, after Jacksonville and Tampa broke through. The more important news has to do with playoff races though. Even though it’s still relatively early in the season, the Detroit-Chicago game was a big one; combined with Philly beating Green Bay, the Lions are now a game up in the division and have a locked-in tiebreaker against the Bears. If things play out evenly the rest of the way, that should be enough for the Lions to take the title.
Speaking of the Eagles, their win combined with Dallas’ loss put the NFC East into a tie. Both teams still have two games on Washington and the Giants, and while that doesn’t feel like a big lead in such an iffy division, it’s still pretty important with only eight games to go. Even if you think the Eagles or Cowboys can only go 3-5 or so the rest of the way, do you really trust Washington or the Giants to go 5-3 and come out with a tiebreaker? That kind of thought also applies to the maybe-looking-vulnerable-right-now Colts and Bengals. Continue reading
I pegged Thursday night’s game as a toss-up, and I think that despite the touchdown difference for the final score we can say that was a fair assessment. It was close early, then Washington went on a run, then Minnesota went on a run, and Minnesota managed to tack on two field goals to make the final margin a bit more convincing when Washington couldn’t convert from 1st and goal at the 8. That was despite Alfred Morris doing roughly whatever he wanted to do, although his great effort was offset by the Washington defense allowing Christian Ponder to have probably his best game ever before leaving with injury (and then letting Cassel do pretty well too). I know Washington has RGIII, and was out of time-outs, but this was another game (following my account of the Rams-Seahawks game) where I think you have to try running the ball to win. Washington ran well all game, but they have three incompletions to come up short. But enough of that, let’s turn to the rest of this weekend’s games. I’ll cover a couple games that have unusual predictions. Continue reading
Tonight’s game between Washington and Minnesota isn’t the flashiest game of the week, but we’ll try to do it a little justice. It does at least have two of the bigger names in the NFL in Robert Griffin III and Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, it’s been a rough season for those two as the Vikings are having a terrible year and Washington isn’t doing a whole lot better, although at least the state of their division is keeping them in the race. Let’s break the game down and then take a look at the SuperContest picks. Continue reading
We’ve hit the midpoint of the season, which seems like it should be after week 8 but isn’t quite thanks to the byes. The league has played 133 out of 256 games, so technically we’ve had a few extra, but close enough. That seems like a good excuse to cover the rankings and predictions first, then I’ll get to how the predictions fared this weekend. Continue reading
If you’re expecting to see any more overtime victories by safety this weekend, I wouldn’t hold my breath. We were looking forward to a close game, but it’s probably more accurate to say that the Bengals gave it away. Dalton threw three interceptions, which he had only done three times before. Even if you think Dalton might be prone to throwing picks, the timing wasn’t so great. He had one that was returned 94 yards for a touchdown, which is at least a ten-point swing right there. He also threw one with less than 30 seconds before half time, which the Dolphins turned around into a quick field goal. The Bengals couldn’t have just run the clock out, since Miami had all its timeouts, but if they had sprinkled a run in there there might not have been enough time for the field goal (and perhaps the interception wouldn’t have happened). But, the game turned out the way it did, and so Miami stays in the playoff hunt while the Bengals fail to put a real damper on the AFC North race. Continue reading
The model picks have gone poorly the last two weeks, but the SuperContest picks have at least stayed more or less afloat. That’s part of the point- as the most confident picks, they should have the best chance of being correct. That isn’t 100% the case since I have to pick five each week regardless of how many are ‘confident’; there could be 7 good games one week and 2 another. But overall, they should do well or at least hang in there regardless of how the other games turn out. Tonight’s game won’t make it into those picks, but let’s break down the Bengals and Dolphins anyway. Continue reading