NFL Week 10 Results

Just when I thought the picks couldn’t get any worse, they did.  Luigi got Thursday night’s game right, and then didn’t get another one until the end of the Arizona-St. Louis game.  So let’s flash through the embarrassment. Continue reading

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NFL Week 10 Picks

Entering the second half of the season, there’s surprisingly little we know about the best team in the NFL.  That’s because we don’t know who it is.  My rankings have the Broncos on top, but they aren’t clearly better than the Colts, and neither is that far ahead of the Pats, Ravens, or Eagles.  And if you’re a believer in head-to-head games being super informative, then maybe you’d put the Pats ahead of the Broncos despite New England having played worse in a lot of other games.  Maybe the Eagles should be ahead of the Colts, although they’ve gotten by on special teams and now have to get by with Mark Sanchez.  Maybe the one-loss Cardinals should be #1, although they lost convincingly to the Broncos.  So maybe this will be the week that brings a little clarity to the league, or maybe at least the playoff picture. Continue reading

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Browns-Bengals and Halfway Point Power Rankings

Tonight’s game has already started, so I won’t belabor the preview.  The Bengals are favored by about a touchdown, which seems right given the pedigrees and expectations for the two teams.  That being said, the Browns have been fairly solid so far this year, albeit against a pretty easy schedule.  The models all have the Bengals as the favorite, but by more like a field goal.  Instead let’s take a look at the power rankings about halfway through the season. Continue reading

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NFL Week 9 Results

It was another iffy week for the models.  Let’s tear through this and I’ll spend more energy on something useful. Continue reading

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NFL Week 9 – When Everyone Took a Break

After a steady stream of only missing one or maybe two games due to byes, this week there are only 13 games out of a possible 16.  It even includes the Lions, which will maybe give them a chance to get healthy.  Despite the relatively small number of games, there are some interesting lines as there are four teams favored by double digits (or nearly so, depending on where you look) and five home underdogs (one of which already lost and failed to cover: the Panthers on Thursday).  At least in the recent past, home and big underdogs have been good for covers, so let’s see if that pans out this week. Continue reading

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Panthers-Saints and the Power Rankings

Do you remember how people kept complaining about the Thursday night games last year?  Or was that this year?  Or is it every year?  Anyway, tomorrow night we get a rare bird:  two sub-.500 teams playing for first place in their division.  The Saints and Panthers are decent teams and historically have had some good games, so I’m optimistic that the game will be better than that description gives them credit for, but let’s take a quick look. Continue reading

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NFL Week 8 Results

After a bizarre game in London (but a win is a win!), the Lions have played two games in a row where they won yet failed to cover.  That’s more impressive when you consider they were favored in those games by 2 and 3.5.  This week it was a small help to the models, as they all had Atlanta covering thanks to the Falcons being listed as the home team.  How about the other games?  Let’s find out how the picks did. Continue reading

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