The NFL (and the blog) is back

Hey everyone!  After a busy summer, I have made my way back from the desert in time for the return of the NFL tomorrow night.  As usual, my first order of business is to blithely act like I can predict who will win the week 1 games based on team performance from last year.  Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Super Bowl Prediction

By now you’ve had about all the Super Bowl coverage you can probably stand.  Some of what I read included Bill Simmons’ pick (as always), Bill Barnwell’s breakdown and prediction, and a summary of previous offense-defense Super Bowls.  So I’m not going to pile on much and instead just add a couple of my reactions along with the pick. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

NFL Conference Title Game Recaps

I thought both games this weekend were pretty entertaining.  The Broncos had a sizable lead for the second half, but the Patriots worked their way back to striking distance; if you hung around for the whole game, they were a two point conversion away from going for an onside kick with a chance to tie the game.  Of course, there are a lot of moving parts in that scenario, which makes the whole thing unlikely, and they never got the two point conversion in the first place.  But if you enjoy football and the prospect of comebacks and working through what teams need to do to get back into it… at any rate, it worked for me.  And the Seahawks-49ers game came down to the last minute, so that has to be a winner.  Let’s do a quick recap. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

NFC Conference Title Game Predictions

We’re down to four teams, and as everyone has been telling you, it’s the four teams you probably expected to be here at the beginning of the season.  Of course, that in itself is unexpected.  At the beginning of last year, did a lot of people see Atlanta and Baltimore in the conference finals (or even the 49ers, given the QB switch)?  The Giants the year before?  The Packers were sort of expected to make a run by ‘numbers guys’ in 2010, but I don’t think that was a common opinion, and the Jets made quite a run to keep Mark Sanchez in money a little longer.  The point is, the NFL is not like the NBA.  The season is too short and individual games too messy to predict who is going to make it through a whole season all the way to the end of the playoffs.  Someone usually sneaks through, but not this year.  We’ve got four good teams, including two with an all-time offense and defense.  How’s it going to shake out? Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

NFL Divisional Round Results

Going by the spread we managed to have a chalk weekend, setting up some good storylines for the conference championships.  Chalk is never quite as likely as it sounds; if you assume that the better team has an 85% chance of winning (and in the playoffs they rarely do, since they’re going against good teams instead of the worst in the league) and there are four games, the chances of every favorite winning is only around 50/50.  Even withe the favorites all moving on, only the Colts were completely out of their game.  Let’s take a look. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

The divisional round is when the home team takes over.  As you’ve probably heard, and as makes sense since this is when the teams with the top records enter the playoffs, the home team wins these games at an unusually high rate (I think about 73%).  But this year at least the divisional match-ups also feature three games that already happened earlier in the season.  One of those games had the current home team win but is now the underdog, and another had two ‘rematches’ that went to a split.  Will we get repeated results, a boring chalk-filled weekend, something new, or all of the above?  Let’s see what the models say. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

NFL Wild Card Round-Up

It doesn’t always turn out this clean, but just as the models predicted we had three close games this weekend.  The exception was the Chargers-Bengals game, where the underdog Bengals covered, which was also expected.  It was slightly less expected to see them win handily.  How they won was also kind of surprising, but I’ll break that out a bit more below. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment