NFL Week 5 Picks

Once again, the Thursday night pick didn’t go so well.  Christian Ponder being on a football field didn’t help (everyone loses when that happens), but this was a case of the Packers playing like they were supposed to all year even though they haven’t all year.  The Vikings being kind of terrible isn’t all that surprising, but Green Bay’s next few weeks will be informative.  If they’re actually good, then they should look pretty good playing Miami and Carolina the next two weeks and put on a good show in New Orleans before heading into the bye at maybe 5-3 if not 6-2.  If they’re more like the team we saw play Seattle and Detroit, they might still get there at 5-3 but could be 4-4 and everyone will be a little unsettled.  But those are predictions for future days; let’s look at the rest of week 5 first. Continue reading

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Packers-Vikings and the Power Rankings

Tonight’s game is a big one in the NFC North.  The Lions sit at the top of the division at 3-1, but everyone else is tied at 2-2.  And as I keep harping on, the most important games involve teams with average records.  The Lions host the Bills this weekend and are currently big favorites, but it’s hard to say with a new QB coming in (Orton for Buffalo) and the Lions being the Lions.  Chicago is traveling to Carolina, who may not have any running backs but is still a decent team.  So it’s possible that the winner of this game will end up in a tie for first place with a division win under their belt. Continue reading

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NFL Week 4 Results

It was a rough week for the models; looking at all games, Luigi went for a perfect split on the 13 game slate, 6-6-1.  I’m not quite at Patriots-levels of panic, but it might get there soon.  Let’s do the belated round-up. Continue reading

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NFL Week 4 Picks

Depending on your opinion of things, either the Giants are an ok team that had a rough start, or Kirk Cousins is maybe not the QB of the future in Washington (or maybe both).  All I know is that I had Larry Donnell on the bench for one of my fantasy teams, and that was not a happy feeling (cool story, bro).  Also, I think Washington was a consensus winner for that game, so I don’t feel too bad about the models missing on it.  Particularly when Cousins had such an atrocious game; even if he’s worse than he showed in his first couple appearances, he won’t turn it over 5 times in one game very often.  Maybe the rest of the weekend’s games will be more in line with what the models think. Continue reading

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Giants-Washington and the First Power Ranking

Just a quick note on tonight’s game, and a table for all you guys who enjoy power rankings. Continue reading

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Week 3 Results – A Game of Inches

You always hear that football is a game of inches.  Al Pacino just finished telling me so himself.  You hear less often that picking football games is also a game of inches, but it’s just as true.  This past weekend was a perfect example.  Luigi and Yoshi 2 both had Atlanta as 6 to 7 point favorites over Tampa.  The line was Atlanta -6, so they both would pass since they’re so close to the line.  Bill Simmons’ line was -6.5, which so happens to split Luigi and Yoshi 2.  But there’s no passing on Simmons’ picks; when Atlanta got the blow-out, Luigi gets a W and Yoshi 2 gets a L.  The Saints beat the Vikings by 11 when the line is 10.5.  The Browns miss two field goals in a game they could have won, and it ends up a push.  At least for me; Simmons had it at 1.5 instead of 2.  My wife can tell you about the discussion we had when the Broncos went for 2 at the end of their game.  Fail, and a Broncos win against the spread is virtually guaranteed.  Succeed and the Seahawks have a chance to go down the field in overtime and score a touchdown to cover.  What happened?  And when the margin between making winning picks and losing picks is so small, those little differences add up.  Let’s see who was on the right side this week. Continue reading

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NFL Week 3 Predictions

Week 3 has some interesting things going for it.  After the Tampa-Atlanta game, we’ve already had one of the biggest beatdowns in league history.  We have two teams favored by double-digits, which will provide some more evidence on the ‘double digit dogs are a good bet’ front.  Two supposed-to-be-good teams, the Saints and Colts, try to get their first wins in very winnable games (the Saints are one of those double digit favorites).  There’s that Seattle-Denver game.  And generally speaking we have no idea how good many teams are, and this is going to be an informative game.  Read on to see what the models think will happen. Continue reading

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