Tag Archives: APM

A Quick Thought on Plus/Minus

The Wages of Wins guys have a post on plus/minus over at their blog, and Tango has something of a reply post over at his blog.  I thought I would throw in my two cents.

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NBA Retrodiction Contest: Blend Update

A couple of people asked about potential overfitting for the blends I mentioned in the last retrodiction post.  After a couple days of waiting for the iterations to run, mixed with multiple restarts for completely unnecessary computer lock-ups, here you … Continue reading

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NBA Retrodiction Contest Part 3: The Perfect Blend

In the first two posts in this series I looked at how well various NBA productivity metrics can explain what happened and predict what will happen.  But I think at least some people would say that they would never stick … Continue reading

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NBA Retrodiction Contest Part 2: The Goods

In part 1 I tantalized you with the ability of different NBA productivity metrics to explain what happened.  This time we get to the important part, which is their ability to predict the next season.

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NBA Retrodiction Contest Part 1: What Happened?

So with my happy new database, I’ve been sitting on updating my project of predicting past outcomes to compare different NBA productivity metrics.  But that is true no more.  Here goes.

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Consistency of Metrics

One of the things that I’ve looked at before as a pet project is the consistency of metrics across seasons.  For example, I mocked up some fake versions of Wins Produced, PER, and NBA Efficiency and found that Wins Produced … Continue reading

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NBA Database Update

I’ve made a few updates to my NBA player stats database, so I’ve reposted the sheet on Google Docs here.  I added a few columns, described below, and caught an error.  The new WP numbers were wrong for players with … Continue reading

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