Tag Archives: probability

The (Usual) Folly of Probability Matching

Generally speaking, people are fairly decent at learning how often things happen.  For example, if you asked someone to predict a bunch of coin flips, they would come out pretty close to 50%.  They aren’t especially good at doing other, … Continue reading

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Streak for the Cash: Good Luck

It’s been a while since I did anything a little more basic stats-y, so here’s something I was thinking of the other day:  what are my chances at winning anything in ESPN’s Streak for the Cash competition?

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All Players Have Tails

My last post talked about the fact that unlikely things are bound to happen, and so we have to think carefully about what it means when something unusual happens.  Then I was looking at Arturo’s tour of the WoW family … Continue reading

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Things Happen

The recent death of Paul the octopus and the start of the NBA season reminded me that it’s always good to think about what exactly statistics tell us about the world.  If you don’t remember Paul, he correctly predicted all … Continue reading

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The Odds Have It

As I mentioned last time, I enjoy the work that Brian Burke has done over at Advanced NFL Stats.  One of the cool things that he’s done is taken play by play data and used it to get an estimate … Continue reading

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A Word on Probability

Part of what I want to do with this blog is spread a little knowledge around.  This will be the first post like that.  Also, it gives background on the technique I’ll use in the next post.  I’m going to … Continue reading

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