Tag Archives: statistics

The (Usual) Folly of Probability Matching

Generally speaking, people are fairly decent at learning how often things happen.  For example, if you asked someone to predict a bunch of coin flips, they would come out pretty close to 50%.  They aren’t especially good at doing other, … Continue reading

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Statistics Can Lie… Sometimes

Just wanted to pass along this post, which I think does a neat job of describing why some scientific studies seem to disagree from week to week (have some wine! no, don’t have wine! coffee is good for you!  caffeine … Continue reading

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A Quick Thought on Plus/Minus

The Wages of Wins guys have a post on plus/minus over at their blog, and Tango has something of a reply post over at his blog.  I thought I would throw in my two cents.

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Accuracy and Precision

As I’ve been thinking about my football models and their less-than-stellar season of predictions, I was reminded about the distinction between accuracy and precision.  Depending on the circumstances, those two words can mean a lot of different things.  If you’re … Continue reading

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Calvin Johnson is a Statistical Leader

Brian Burke had a post commemorating Calvin Johnson’s record by taking the opportunity to poo-poo the word ‘statistics’ as being similar to trivia.  I understand where he’s coming from if that’s what he usually hears from people; Brian does much … Continue reading

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RAPM – Conclusions

So that was a long series on regularized regression, the technique behind RAPM.  I covered what it is and how it tends to react to collinearity, sample size, noise, and the number of predictors.  I thought a bit of a … Continue reading

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Regularization: The R in RAPM – Predictors

The last thing I wanted to look at with regularized regression is the impact of the number of predictors.  With NBA data, you would optimally get an estimate for every player who gets in a game.  However, due to collinearity … Continue reading

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