NFL Week 4 Round-Up

Man, that Sunday night game was really unsatisfying, wasn’t it?  I think we found out what we thought we knew about the Bears: barely beating the Lions and barely beating the Packers were the warning signs (along with their horrific running game) that the Bears probably weren’t quite that good.  I expect to see a big drop in the power rankings.

As a general note on the picks, there have only been 3 weeks of picks.  It seems like 46 games is a fair number, but a 5% difference in accuracy at this point means a difference of only 2 games correct; 50% would be 23-23, 55% would be 25-21, and 60% would be 27-19.  So the models look like they aren’t much above chance if at all against the spread, but it’s too early to say.  A couple more weeks should give us a better idea.

How did the models do?  Moneyline: Cleveland, Denver, and Washington won while Chicago laid an egg; at $100 a game that’s $450 to the plus and 3-1 for both models.  For the season Mario is 7-2 and +$1000; Luigi is 7-3 and +$900.

Over/under: Mario went 4-4 in -110 games for -$36.36, 1-2 in -105 games for -$104.76, 1-1 in -115 games for -$13.04, and 1-0 in even (-100) games for +$100; that’s 7-7 for -$54.16 overall.  Luigi went 5-3 in -110 games for +$155.55, 1-3 in -105 games for -$204.76, 0-1 in -115 games for -$100, and 1-0 in even games for +$100; that’s 7-7 for -$49.21 overall.  On the season Mario is 18-27 for -$960; Luigi is 22-23 for -$190.

The spread: Mario went 7-5, skipping the Lions-Packers and Patriots-Dolphins games.  Luigi went 7-3, skipping the Bengals-Browns, Broncos-Titans, Redskins-Eagles, and Bears-Giants games.  On the season, Mario moves to 22-20-1 and Luigi to 22-17-1.  Depending on your pay odds, Mario is likely about even or just below while Luigi should be ahead.

Bill Simmons: Betting every game against Bill’s lines, Mario went 8-6 and Luigi went 10-4.  Bill went 6-8.  On the season that moves Mario to 23-22-1, Luigi to 24-21-1, me to 31-28-3, and Bill to 31-28-3.  We’re back to even, and I expect to pull ahead in the next couple weeks.

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