Back in the Saddle

Coming off of the Madden Curse I was hopeful that the model would rebound, and it certainly did.  It was also an exciting weekend if  you enjoyed scoring; it was the second-highest scoring weekend in 20 years, highlighted by 76 points tonight from the Cowboys and Giants, 73 points from Raiders-Broncos ,71 from Bengals-Falcons and Bills-Ravens (the only overtime game), and 62 from Jags-Chiefs.  So how did the models do?

Over/under: two games went off at -105 and both models took the over; they split and thus went 1-1 for -$4.76.  One game went at -115 and both took the over; the Bengals and Falcons obliged and thus both went 1-0 for $86.96.  In the other 11 games (at -110), Mario went 3-8 for -$527.27 while Luigi went 5-6 for -$145.45.  Overall this week Mario was 5-9 for -$445.07 and Luigi was 7-7 for -$63.25.  On the season, Mario is 38-49 for -$1350 and Luigi is 44-43 for -$200.

Moneyline: Mario picked Atlanta, Philly, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Carolina, Denver, and the Giants.  That’s 5-3 for $248.34.  Luigi took the same but Cincy instead of Atlanta and Oakland instead of Denver.  So the model also went 5-3 but for $454.52.  On the season Mario is 16-15 for $1025 and Luigi is 18-17 for $1675.

Spread: Mario would have avoided Miami-Pittsburgh and Chargers-Pats.  In the other 12 games it went 7-5.  Luigi was more cautious, so to speak, and skipped Atlanta-Cincy, Chicago-Washington, Denver-Oakland, and Dallas-Giants.  But in the other 10 games it nailed 8 of them.  That was an even better comeback than I was hoping for.  On the season Mario moves to 36-42-2; Luigi moves to 42-31-2.  I wish I had gone with Luigi all along.

Bill Simmons: Bill went 8-6 with lines that were virtually identical to the ones I got from Bodog.  Mario made all the same picks but missed the two it would have skipped, so it went 7-7 overall.  Luigi made the same picks except for switching to Dallas in a game it skipped; in the four skip games it went 3-1 and thus a ridiculous 11-3 this week.  On the season Bill is 54-45-5, Mario is 38-47-3, Luigi is 49-36-3, and I am 51-48-5.  I cut my deficit in half and hopefully the good times keep rolling next week, even though there will only be 13 games and one of them will be in London (enjoy your ‘home’ game, 49ers!).

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