This past week wasn’t the most exciting slate of games ever, especially compared to the second-highest scoring week in 20 years. The Bills and Chiefs had an interesting game though, the Packers demonstrated that the Jets aren’t quite the best team ever, and the Chargers finally got another notch in the win column. How’d the model do?
Over/under: Three games went at -105 and one at -115. Mario got all of them for $372.67. Luigi went 2-2 for -$17.81. In the -110 games, both models went 6-3 for $245.45. So overall this week Mario was 10-3 for $618.12 and Luigi was 8-5 for $227.64. On the season, Mario is 48-52 for -$735 and Luigi is 52-48 for $30.
Moneyline: Mario liked Jacksonville, Green Bay, San Diego, New England, Arizona, and Indy. Only the Cardinals lost, so Mario was 5-1 for $489.55. Luigi passed on San Diego and New England and took Tampa Bay and Houston instead, so it went 3-1 for $510. Good week! On the season Mario is 21-16 for $1515 and Luigi is 21-18 for $2185.
Spread: Mario would have skipped Cincy-Miami, KC-Buffalo, and New Orleans-Pittsburgh. In the other games, it rocked an incredible 9-1 record. Luigi was a bit more modest, skipping only Detroit-Washington and going 6-6. On the season, Mario moves to 45-43-2, probably not good enough to be making money yet, and Luigi moves to 48-37-2, which is.
Bill Simmons: Bill went 8-5 with his picks. His lines were different enough that the models switched a couple of their picks in close calls, and every pick counts. Mario went 12-1 in an attempt to show Bill the error of his ways while Luigi went 9-4. On the season Bill moves to 62-50-5, which is pretty impressive. Mario is 50-48-3, jumping to above .500, and Luigi is 58-40-3, almost as many hits as Bill despite skipping week 1. With my changing criteria for picks, I am 60-52-5. Closing in! One of Bill’s strategies this week seemed to be picking the AFC in intra-conference games, since they’re 17-12 against the NFC so far. But they only went 3-3 this week, and that includes Jacksonville winning a game that they had a chance at before Romo went down (I would continue to plan on Dallas being bad, by the way). There might be some differences in quality of the conferences, but you should always pick the match-up, not use the maybe-useful-maybe-not factoids thrown at you by ESPN or gambling books.