The Cowboys have officially become the red-headed stepchild of the NFL after last night’s thrashing by the Packers. Green Bay is 6-3 and so it looks like Dallas just ran into a good team, but my rankings have them only at 12th in the league and Brian Burke has them at 7th, not too different from Miami, Philly, or Houston; e.g., the Packers are above average but probably shouldn’t be considered a top-tier team. I fully expect a big drop in the rankings.
How did the models do this weekend? Let’s start with the over/under: There were two games at -115, and both models took the over on one (Atl-TB) and the under on the other (Minn-Arizona). They were right on the over, so both models are 1-1 for -$13.04. There were two -105 games; both took the over on Philly-Indy and they split on GB-Dallas. The over was right for both games, so Mario went 2-0 for $190.48 and Luigi was 1-1 for -$4.76. In the remaining -110 games, Mario was 3-6 for -$327.27 and Luigi was 5-4 for $54.54. Overall, Mario was 6-7 for -$150 and Luigi was 7-6 but for $36.75. On the season Mario is 54-59 for -$885 and Luigi is 59-54 for $65.
Moneyline: Mario liked Atlanta, New England, Minnesota, Carolina, Miami, Seattle, Indy, Dallas, and Cincy. Atlanta and Minnesota came through, so Mario was 2-7 for -$650. Luigi liked Tampa, Cleveland, Detroit (an atrocious loss due to a bad decision by Jim Schwartz), Minnesota, Carolina, Miami, Seattle, Indy, Dallas, and Cincy. Cleveland and Minnesota won, so Luigi was 2-8 for -$592. On the season Mario is 23-23 for $860 and Luigi is 23-26 for $1600.
Spread: Mario would have skipped Cleveland-Pats and Houston-SD and went 2-8-1 in the other games. Luigi would have skipped Buffalo-Chicago and Oakland-KC and went 4-7 in the other games. On the season Mario is 47-51-3 and Luigi is 52-44-2. Despite the poor week, Luigi is still doing above chance, and if you were betting $100 on every game at -110 you’d be up about $325 right now.
Simmons: Bill went 6-6-1 against his spreads. Mario went 3-9-1 while Luigi went 4-8-1. On the season Bill is 68-56-6, Mario is 53-57-4, Luigi is 62-48-4, and I am 64-60-6.