Things will be sparse for the next little while; I had the conference that I’m back from, then a trip to see the family at Thanksgiving, then I’ll be out of town again for some work stuff. But I’ll be sure to get the regular posts up, and that means it’s time for the weekend round-up. Brett Favre and the Vikings looked bad, the Steelers and Chargers looked good; how did the models look?
Over/under: There were a lot of -115 and -105 games this week. Mario took the over once in a -115 game and the under three times; he was wrong on the over and 2-1 on the unders for a total of -$9.52. Luigi took the over twice in those same four games but only got one under correct for a total of -$204.76. In -105 games, Mario took the over 3 times and the under twice; he was right on two of the overs for a total of -$109.52. Luigi had the same numbers but different games and got three overs and one under correct for a total of $272.67. So in these games Mario was 4-5 for -$120 and Luigi was 5-4 for $68. In the seven games at -110, both went 4-2-1 (our first over/under push of the season! Thank you, Arizona and Kansas City) for $163.64. So on the week Mario was 8-7-1 for $45 and Luigi was 9-6-1 for $230. On the season Mario is 74-68-1 for $65 and Luigi is 76-66-1 for $430.
Moneyline: Mario liked Cincy, Detroit, Tennessee, KC, Minnesota, Houston, Oakland, Tampa, Indy, the Giants, and Denver. You probably recognize that this is virtually a list of the weekend’s losers; only KC and Tampa won. So Mario was 2-9 for -$715. Luigi liked the same teams but passed on Cincy and Tennessee, and so went 2-7 for -$515. Not a good week for the moneyline. On the season Mario is 28-37 for $110 and Luigi is 26-37 for $855.
Spread: Mario would have skipped Dallas-Detroit, Jacksonville-Cleveland, New Orleans-Seattle, San Fran-Tampa, and New England-Indy (a lot of close calls this week). In the remaining games, he went 3-8. Luigi would have skipped Cincy-Buffalo, Tennessee-Washington, Jacksonville-Cleveland, St. Louis-Atlanta and San Fran-Tampa. In the remaining games he went 4-7. On the season Mario is 58-64-3 and Luigi is 61-55-2.
Simmons: Bill went 9-7 against his lines. Mario went 8-8 and Luigi went 5-11. On the season Bill is 85-69-6, Mario is 68-72-4, Luigi is 76-64-4, and I am 78-76-6. Not a good week overall, but Luigi is still chugging along a little bit ahead of the curve. It’s actually doing a little worse in the games it ‘chooses’ compared to Simmons’ lines; I don’t know if that reflects a difference in Bill’s lines or that Luigi is doing better than usual in games where the line is close to its predictions. After the season I think I’m going to have another giant model fitting adventure.