NFL Week 12 Round-Up

The new coach bounce-back was in effect again this week as the Vikings beat the Redskins.  Of course, the game was essentially a toss-up leaning towards Minnesota as the favorite, so that shouldn’t be unexpected.  Also, as I talked about before, new coaches will probably do better than fired coaches because coaches are usually fired when a team loses a lot, which is at least partially due to bad luck.  That bad luck turns around and the coaching change looks like a good idea when actually it has nothing to do with him.  Imagine what ESPN would be saying if the Chargers had fired Norv Turner when they were 2-5?  Now the Chargers are 6-5 and have a decent chance to win their division at perhaps 10-6 or even 11-5 (we’ll see when I post the season predictions tomorrow).

Speaking of turn-arounds, how did the models do?

Over/under: We had another push this week thanks to Giants-Jacksonville (44 total points).  In the other 15 games Mario was 7-8 for -$158.93 and Luigi was only 5-10 for -$544.70.  On the season Mario is 81-76-2 for -$95 and Luigi is also 81-76-2 but for -$115.

Moneyline: Mario liked Dallas, Cincy, Buffalo, Chicago, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.  A number of these were close, but only Chicago was able to make it work so Mario was 1-6 for -$460.  Luigi made the same picks as well as Detroit, Tampa, and Saint Louis and so went 2-8 for -$495.  On the season Mario is 29-43 for -$350 and Luigi is 28-45 for $360.  After a strong start to the season the moneyline picks are going downhill.  In the offseason I’ll have to see if there’s a reasonable boundary for making picks besides strictly a positive expected value (like maybe the EV has to be over a certain amount).

Spread: Mario would have skipped Atlanta-Green Bay, Seattle-Kansas City, and Arizona-San Fran.  In the other 13 games Mario went 10-3 (it missed Detroit, Cincy, and Tennessee).  Luigi would have skipped Oakland-Miami, Seattle-KC, and Arizona-SF.  In the other 13 Luigi went 8-5 (missing Detroit, Cincy, Green Bay, Tennessee, and Washington).  On the season Mario is 68-67-3 and Luigi is 69-60-2.  If you could get every game at -110, Luigi would be a bit in the black.

Simmons: Bill completed his perfect Thanksgiving day by going 8-5 in the other games for an impressive 11-5 weekend.  Mario went an even better 12-4 and Luigi went 11-5.  Hard to catch up when everyone picks so well.  On the season Bill is 96-74-6, Mario is 80-76-4, Luigi is 87-69-4, and I am 89-81-6.  As was true earlier in the season, if I used my week 1 model in week 1 and went with Luigi the rest if the way, I’d be one game behind Bill, who is at an impressive 22 games over .500.  We’ll have to see if Luigi can make up an extra 7 games against Bill in the last five weeks to give me at least a tie.  As a side note, if Bill bet $100 a game and got -110 odds on every game so far, he’d be up about $1350 on the season.

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