More Projections

ESPN has a NFL playoff predictor on their site now.  The nice thing it does is handle tiebreaker scenarios.  You can predict the rest of the season using one of their pre-sets (team with better win % wins, home team wins, etc) or you can make your own picks, and it tells you the playoff seedings.  I made picks using my Luigi projections, taking whichever team was on the higher side of 50% to win.  The results are here if you’re interested.  The Rams would end up holding Philly (followed by Chicago) out, and the Colts would keep the Chiefs out (followed by Miami, tied with the Colts). 

In the NFC the Rams would get a rematch with the Saints (which hasn’t happened yet, but the Saints should win), and the Giants would host the Bucs.  I  haven’t run it, but I expect the Giants would be favored since they’re third in my power rankings.  That would lead to Falcons-Saints and Packers-Giants, both of which would be rematches (GB-Giants haven’t played yet, and Atlanta beat the Saints in overtime in the one game they’ve played so far).  If the 1 and 2 seed move on, Atlanta would host the Packers, a replay of the game from last weekend that the Falcons won on a last-minute field goal.  Both teams need their home field advantage since their opponents (the Giants and Saints) are higher ranked than they are.

In the AFC the Colts would host the Steelers; I haven’t run it, but I think the Steelers would be favored even on the road since they’re the number 2 team.  The Chargers would host the Jets and the Chargers would be favored.  That would lead to Pats-Steelers (Pats won by 13 in Pittsburgh) and Ravens-Chargers; I kind of think the Chargers might be favored.  If the conference final is Pats-Chargers I think Chargers might still be a small favorite.  But, interestingly, the Patriots have already played every projected AFC playoff team and beaten them all.

A Super Bowl between the Patriots and Falcons would lean toward the Patriots on a neutral field.  With no home field advantage I would probably just go by the power rankings, so the ordering with these teams would be Chargers, Steelers, Giants, Saints, Jets, Packers, Pats, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Bucs, Rams.

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