My wife and I got back from a shopping trip at the beginning of the second half of the Pats-Jets game and found the score at 24-3. I was surprised, I told her, because the Pats were good at offense but the Jets were good at defense, and the Jets were only ok at offense but the Pats were below average on defense. The model thought it would be a close game (although for the Pats). So you picked the Pats, she asked? Nope. That’s ok, she said. Tom Brady’s model thinks his hair is good, and she’s wrong. Zing! Fortunately, the rest of the week went a bit better for my model (and Tom’s doing ok for himself). Here’s the breakdown:
Over/under: There was only one non–110 game, which was Monday night. Both models took the over, which the Pats tied on their own. The models actually only disagreed on two games, which Luigi got right and Mario got wrong. In the other 13 games, the two models went 7-6. So overall Mario was 8-8 for -$68.40 and Luigi was 10-6 for $313.42. On the season Mario is 89-84-2 for -$165 and Luigi is 91-82-2 for $200.
Moneyline: Mario liked Houston, Cincy, Detroit, San Fran, Denver, Cleveland, the Giants, Atlanta, Indy, Arizona, Carolina, Baltimore, and the Jets. Cleveland, the Giants, and Atlanta won so Mario was 3-10 for -$695.79. Luigi skipped on San Fran, Atlanta, and Carolina but picked Tennessee, Buffalo, Washington, Dallas, and Pittsburgh. So Luigi got Cleveland, Dallas, and Pittsburgh and was 3-9 for -$355. On the season Mario is 32-53 for -$1050 and Luigi is 31-54 and even.
Spread: Mario would have skipped Tennessee-Jacksonville, Minnesota-Buffalo, Indy-Dallas, and Seattle-Carolina and went 6-6. Luigi would have skipped Giants-Washington, Arizona-StL, and Baltimore-Pittsburgh and went 8-5. On the season Mario is 74-73-3 and Luigi is 77-65-2.
Simmons: Bill went 7-9 against his lines, his first losing week in a while. Mario also went 7-9, and Luigi went 9-7. Catch up time! On the season, Bill is 103-83-6, Mario is 87-85-4, Luigi is 96-75-4, and I am 98-88-6. Only five games back now, and Luigi is only 7 correct picks behind despite not making choices in week 1.