A Poor NFL Update

I’m on the road so I don’t have great internet access.  In my limited time, here’s a reduced-effort version of the weekly round-up and season predictions.  In terms of the models’ performance, I haven’t looked at the exact numbers but I don’t think they were very uplifting, so let’s get straight to the playoff predictions.

Here’s the power rankings heading into week 16:

And here are the season win predictions:

Using Luigi to predict the last two games, here are the playoff scenarios according to the ESPN playoff machine (full results here):

NFC: Seed order is Atlanta, Philly, Chicago, San Fran, New Orleans, Green Bay.  The Giants would get the 6th seed if they beat Green Bay next week; if Chicago beats Green Bay on the road in week 17 it would switch the Bears to the two seed, Philly to three, and put the Giants in 6th instead of the Packers.  The 49ers and Seahawks are ending in a tie with the Rams a game back, so pretty much every game involving the NFC West changes things.  The Saints can afford to lose to the Falcons, but not Tampa in week 17.  So things are fairly set; the only big questions are who will make it out of the West and which of the Giants, Green Bay, and New Orleans will stay home.

AFC:  The order is Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, Jaguars, Ravens, Jets.  This includes the Chargers winning both their games, so they need help.  They can still get in, but the Ravens would have to lose to both the Browns and the Bengals or the Chiefs would have to lose to Oakland or Tennessee (while the Chargers win both games).  If the Steelers happen to lose either of their games, they would fall to the 6th seed because they are behind in the tie breaker to the Jets.  The Jaguars are projected to win both their games while the Colts only win one; if they win an equal number the Colts will make it instead.

I think those are all the permutations I’m going to check for now.  Almost playoff time!

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