## NFL Week 2 Predictions

Last year I spent some time posting predictions from two different models (Mario and Luigi), which were really a set of regression models trying to guess the point differential, total points, and winner for NFL games.  It turned out that Mario, which used a large set of predictors, didn’t do nearly as well as Luigi, which used a subset similar to, but different from, what Brian Burke uses at Advanced NFL Stats.  For a summary of how the models did, here’s the last round-up from the regular season last year.  In general, they didn’t do great against Bodog.com over/unders, Luigi was a little ahead on winner moneylines, and Luigi was a little ahead on spreads but way ahead using Bill Simmons’ spreads (I still wish he would say where they come from).  This year the predictions return, but I’ll only be posting Luigi’s predictions.

The over/under:  The over/under is just a guess as to how many total points will be scored by both teams (you can see the link above on ‘how to bet’ for more info).  As I said, the models didn’t do very well here.  Last year is the first time I looked at them, so I don’t have any insight at where to place any cut-offs about when to avoid a bet or not.  I’ll just be posting the straight predictions again this year.

The moneyline: The moneyline is a guess as to who will win the game outright.  The team with a negative sign is the favorite; you would have to bet the number after the negative sign to win \$100 if the team actually does win.  The other team is the underdog and you would win that number if you bet \$100 on them and they won.  You can use the moneyline to figure out what probability a team would have to win to be profitable (again, check the link above for more info).  I use that to make the chart below.  Some games didn’t have a moneyline on Bodog yet, so they 0s below.  Other times the model just won’t think that either team is getting the right odds so it won’t bet, but this week it happens to have a pick in every game.  Last year the model seemed to prefer going with underdogs; it wasn’t correct particularly often, but it came out ahead on money because you win more when an underdog wins.