Early NFL Week 5 Predictions

I’m not sure if I’ll be at my computer in the morning to get the predictions up as usual, but it looks like Bodog has numbers up for a lot of the games already anyway.  So you get the numbers a day early!  Lucky you.  And it allows me to send a R.I.P. to Al Davis.  Even though most of his best football days were over by the time I became a fan, it was still impossible to hear about his effects on the league.  If Oakland can upset Houston, it’ll be a nice story for the week.Over/under:  The gambler’s fallacy paid off last week, as the predictions were ridiculously accurate to bring the season record back to around even.  Working under the assumption that the only important game this week is the Lions’ Monday night game, it looks like it’ll be a tiny bit above average in terms of total points (the average so far this year is 45).

Moneyline: Even with Detroit as the favorite, Luigi thinks they’re a good pick.  Your ‘maybe worth a look’ upset picks are Seattle, Tennessee, Carolina, and Denver.  Tennessee is the only one Luigi thinks might actually win, but the rest all have a better probability than the pay odds suggest.

Spread: I’m happy to see that Detroit is predicted to cover the spread.  I hope it’s a laugher and I don’t have to sweat things out after having two straight second-half comebacks.  In terms of ‘stay-away’ games, we only have Houston-Oakland and Denver-San Diego this week.

Simmons: Bill surrounded his picks with a bunch of other lines and discussion this week.  I think it’s to hide the fact that he only went 8-8 last week and is afraid that I’m going to run away with the title early this year.  Or it might just have been because the bye weeks start this week.  I think it’s the first option, though.

Some other random notes: Bill is assuming that Philly will have to respond at some point and that Buffalo maybe isn’t as good as they’ve been playing.  They’re still at home and getting 3 points though.  His Jacksonville line is 5 points different than Bodog’s, and I couldn’t really say why.  Since we both think the Bengals will win, Bodog’s line is actually better for me.  And I think Bill is trying to reverse-jinx the Patriots by taking the Jets to cover.  But we disagree on 6 of the 13 games, so there’s a good chance for a big change in the standings after this weekend.

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One Response to Early NFL Week 5 Predictions

  1. Pingback: Looking at the SuperContest | Sport Skeptic

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