NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

I was so upset about how the weekend went that I forgot to put in the power rankings and season predictions.  Here you go, with a little discussion.

Power Rankings: The Lions’ loss dropped them a fair amount, although it isn’t so much the fact that they lost as how they lost.  Ignoring sacks, Stafford only picked up 5.9 yards per pass, and the running game is still awful at 3.7 yards per rush.  The Lions didn’t lose any turnovers, but did fumble twice; the act of fumbling is more predictive than actually losing fumbles.  Stafford was also sacked 5 times, much more than in previous games.  The Lions pass defense held up pretty well, but they were absolutely gashed in the running game.  All in all, the Lions lost ground on offense and defense and dropped from 4th to 10th.  The 49ers, on the other hand, pretty much played to expectations and held their ground.  Houston was the other big loser this weekend, dropping from 5th to 13th.  Chicago might have been the biggest gainer, moving from 27th to 19th (and about average) after drubbing the Vikings.

Season Predictions: Our current luckiest teams are the Packers, Saints, and 49ers, all of which are projected to do well and are at least a game ahead of expected.  Other teams are also ahead of projections (such as the Giants, Bucs, and Raiders), but they aren’t as close to the top of the list.  On the other end, the Eagles and Texans lead the list of unlucky but good teams.  If you add current wins to expected future wins, here are your division winners (and one race that’s too close to call): Packers (13), Patriots (12), Ravens (12), Houston (9), Giants (9), New Orleans (10), 49ers (11), Chargers/Raiders(9).  If the Raiders actually get Carson Palmer, his play is going to determine if they can keep up their good record and win the division.

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3 Responses to NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

  1. EvanZ says:

    How do you calculate your rankings/ratings? Also, why don’t the means for offense and defense equal each other? Is offense more important?

    • Alex says:

      Here’s my original power ranking post with some details: . You’d also want to look at the NFL prediction model in the banner for a description of the models, although I’ve only ever used Luigi for power rankings and it’s the only one I use now. The short answer is that I haven’t made the model public, but it’s similar to Brian Burke’s win probability model. The (also short and unsatisfying) answer to the offense/defense question is, that’s how the weights turn out. To actually calculate a given game’s probability, I use the home team’s offensive and defensive stats along with the away team’s same stats; the power rankings take the offensive and defensive stats and assume the team is at home. So the power rankings are related to the win probability model, but there’s no opponent.

      Brian has also claimed that a good offense beats a good defense, so it’s possible that offense is more important. I think he has a post discussing the effects of changing each stat he considers (e.g. what happens if a team suddenly got an extra yard per pass attempt versus per run attempt); I’m sure my model reacts similarly.

  2. Pingback: NFL Week 12 Round-Up – Now with More Tebow | Sport Skeptic

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