A quick note before I get into the results from the weekend. I haven’t made fun of TMQ in a while, mostly because I don’t remember to read it when it isn’t plastered all over the ESPN front page. So I did some catching up. A couple weeks ago TMQ had an article where the whole premise was the idea that playing high school football was holding back young men from getting into college, and this is (at least in part) the cause for the growing disparity in female-male college attendance. He noted, “College admission officers consider extracurriculars quite important. Many boys who spend most of their time and energy during high school on year-round football, then do not get recruited, send to colleges applications listing a low GPA and no extracurriculars. They’re up against girls listing a higher GPA and extracurriculars. Who do you think will be admitted?”. Today’s TMQ discussed the physical risks that come with playing football, countered of course by some benefits. TMQ says, “There are many rewards to playing football — exciting experiences, a sense of worth in the community, admission boosts to college being among them.”. Sooooo…. playing football lowers the chance of getting into college, but boosts admission to college? I’ll write this one the way TMQ would: TMQ uses arguments that support his current point, even if they conflict with a point he made yesterday.
Now that I’ve made myself feel better by being mean to TMQ, let’s get to the depressing stuff. Luigi had a crappy weekend, much like the Colts. He was simply outclassed by the Bodog lines. Luigi went 4-9 against the over/under, which had recently been going well, which I suspect was a smokescreen. That makes it 44-41-2 on the season. In terms of picking outright winners, Luigi was 6-7, which I believe is its first sub-.500 week this season. That makes it 50-37 on the season.
Looking at the moneyline, underdogs Houston and Jacksonville managed to win. So despite the model only getting those two correct (2-5), you would have turned a tiny profit if you were betting $100 a game. Sadly, that isn’t true on the season overall as the moneyline picks are 21-32. Last year the picks were well below .500 but profitable because of underdog picks like Jacksonville, which are somewhat rare. This year they appear to be too rare so far.
Finally, the spread. Against Bodog in all games Luigi was 4-8-1, with Cleveland-Seattle providing the push. That’s 41-42-4 on the season. If you take out the close games, Luigi was 2-7-1 and is 35-34-3 on the season. Against his own lines, Bill Simmons was 5-7-1 and Luigi was 4-8-1. That puts Bill at 50-47-6 and Luigi at 52-45-6. My lead has been dropping the last couple weeks, but it’s still a lead. And again Bill’s lines are proving slightly easier than Bodog’s. Looking at my ‘SuperContest’ performance against Bodog lines, I would have gone with the Colts, Raiders, Vikings, Bucs, and Cardinals this week with some of the smallest confidence values this season (a range of 2.2 to 5.4 off from the lines; last week the range was 4.2 to 7.3 and in week 5 it was 4.2 to 9.8). Those picks went 1-4 so my top 5 picks are 18-15-2 for 19 points. That’s definitely starting to fall off the top-20 pace, so things need to turn around for Luigi to get back in the hunt.