NFL Week 9 Round-Up

I was oddly relaxed this weekend, then I realized the Lions were on their bye.  Even my fantasy football results were locked in by the end of the afternoon games on Sunday.  Instead all I had to worry about was how Luigi was doing with the games.  And that turned out ok too.  Let’s get to it.

Luigi was 9-5 against the over/under, putting him at 60-52-2 overall.  As far as totals go, the Packers-Chargers game was notably for being ridiculously high, getting to 83.  The two other games with Bodog totals around the same mark (51) didn’t get there (Saints-Bucs and Pats-Giants).  According to my records, 83 points has only been beaten in the past 7 years 10 times (perhaps more, since the file I checked doesn’t include week 1).  So this was a once or twice a year game.  The Packers were also involved in one of the previous high-scorers, which you might remember as their great playoff game against the Cardinals in 2009.

In terms of picking winners, Luigi was 8-6.  That puts him at 67-47 on the season.  When you look at the moneyline, Luigi was 4-3, getting the Bears, Giants, Broncos, and Dolphins but missing the Colts, Redskins, and Chargers.  If either of Phil Rivers’ pick-sixes hadn’t been returned for touchdowns, that game might have ended differently.  Even if the Packers still got a field goal out of one of them, that’s a different endgame.  But more importantly, Luigi’s showing gets him to 30-39 on the season and the moneyline bets just moved into the black.  Remember that Luigi prefers underdogs, so it can have a below .500 record and come out ahead.  I think that’s mostly because the payouts on underdogs are inherently higher, but I would need to look into it more.

Luigi made 11 picks against the spread out of the 14 games, and went 6-5.  In all 14 games it was 7-7.  So in pickable games on the season Luigi is 46-40-4 and 56-53-5 overall.  My SuperContest picks were the Bills (no), Seahawks (yes), Cardinals (yes), Giants (yes), and Redskins (no), putting me at 3-2 on the week, 25-17-3 overall, and 26.5 points.  I would have been desperately tempted to switch in the Bengals for the Redskins, since they had very similar confidence values, and that would have gotten me an extra point.  I wish I’d been tracking my picks against the actual Hilton spreads; if those are what Bill Simmons uses, I usually do better against those and my record would presumably be a little better.

Speaking of Simmons, he indeed did have a bounce-back week, going 10-4 while Luigi was only 7-7.  That bumps Bill up to 65-59-6 while I am at 67-57-6.  So looking at level of difficulty: against Bill’s lines, ignoring pushes, Luigi is at 54%.  Against Bodog’s lines Luigi is 51.4%.  If you take out the close calls against Bodog lines (i.e., look at pickable games), Luigi is 53.5%.  And in his ‘top five locks’ picks, Luigi is 59.5%.  So Bill’s lines are easier than Bodog’s for whatever reason, tossing the close games does improve accuracy, and the most confident picks (in terms of being farther away from the spread) are more accurate.  We’ll see if those trends all continue through the second half of the season.

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