I’m on the road for the holidays, so it’s time to consolidate posts a little bit. Below is a recap of last week’s picks and the updated power ranking and season predictions.
The over/under continues to be a lost cause for Luigi, who was 4-10. That puts him at 69-70-4 for the season. Picking the outright winner was much better at 11-3 for a season total of 85-59. Factoring in the moneyline Luigi was 3-5 and about broke even; on the season the moneyline picks are 37-48 and a little profitable.
It was a good week against the spread with Luigi going 9-4-1 overall (Baltimore-Cincy was the push). In all games Luigi is 72-66-6. The only game too close to call was Chicago-San Diego (which Luigi happened to be correct about), so in pickable games Luigi was 8-4-1. In those games Luigi is 60-51-5 on the season and a tiny bit profitable. The top five picks for my pretend SuperContest were only 2-2-1, which is unlucky for a week where the picks were so good overall. That puts the top 5 record at 29-22-4 for 31 points. Using Bill Simmons’ lines, Luigi was 8-4-2 (Atlanta-Tennessee became a push instead of a win) while Bill was only 5-7-2. That breaks our tie as I jump back out to a three games lead; against Bill’s lines Luigi is 82-70-8 while Bill is 79-73-8.
On to the power rankings. Things are starting to settle in now.
The Patriots jumped over the Saints, and the Bengals actually moved up despite their loss to the Ravens. Chicago made a good move up, which is potentially a smokescreen since Cutler will be out for a few weeks. How about the season predictions?
The playoff picture should be materializing any time now… right? With the Jets and Bills losing, the Pats are essentially a lock in the AFC East. The Texans should have a grip on the South since the Titans lost a potentially winnable game. Oakland’s win and San Diego’s loss gave the Raiders the edge in the West, but the Chargers and Broncos are still in it. It looks like the North will send three teams to the playoffs, with the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals going in that order.
The NFC North belongs to the Packers, obviously, and the West to the 49ers. The model continues to not like Atlanta but they continue to keep winning, but the Saints should have the South in hand. The Eagles’ win keeps them alive for the NFC East, but it seems to have mostly helped Dallas get an edge on the Giants. So the wild card favorites look to be the Lions (10 wins) and Bears (also 10), but the Falcons (9) and even the Giants (8ish) are still in the hunt. And of course, crazy stuff could happen at any moment.
Big games this weekend: Packers-Lions (mostly for the Lions), Dolphins-Cowboys (for the ‘boys), 49ers-Ravens (SF can keep pressure on the Packers for home field while the Ravens solidify their wild card), Vikings-Falcons and Browns-Bengals (Atlanta and Cincy get easy games to help the wild card push), Texans-Jaguars (see how Houston does without Schaub) and Bears-Raiders (see how Chicago does without Cutler but with much more playoff weight), Broncos-Chargers (one team will win the West, and that’s the only team going), and Giants-Saints (both teams trying to look down their division). Hey, that’s most of the games! After this weekend I might use the playoff predictor again to see how these predictions look in probability form. Check in Thursday for Thanksgiving predictions!