MNF Update: Bovada has the line at 49ers -3, so it would take the Steelers. There’s no moneyline, but the over/under is 38 and Luigi likes the over. Enjoy the game!
With two games already done this week, the predictions aren’t doing so hot. Both the Falcons and the Cowboys won comfortably against the Jaguars and Bucs, which was predicted but perhaps not by so much (27 and 16 points). So the outright winner picks are 2-0, but the spread picks are 0-2, the moneyline 0-1, the over/under 1-1, and Bill Simmons is ahead of me 1-1 over 0-2 on his picks. The Jaguars would also be one of my SuperContest picks, so that’s 0-1 to start off. Hopefully the rest of the games go a bit more my way. There are no Monday Night numbers up yet; I’ll try to do an update before then.
Over/under: In case you’re curious.
Moneyline: Some games of interest – Chicago is a reasonable favorite over Seattle, but perhaps their numbers haven’t caught up to the fact that Hanie is their QB and Forte is still out. The Raiders are a small favorite over the Lions, which I hope turns out wrong. The Eagles are favored over the Jets, but they’ll have to overcome their season-long trend of underperforming. Luigi has the Chargers as tiny favorites over the Ravens, which is maybe surprising. And the Steelers are small road favorites over the 49ers.
Spread: The games to skip this week are Buffalo-Miami, Colts-Titans, Rams-Bengals, Vikings-Saints, and Eagles-Jets. People have installed the Lions as a small road favorite; I hope they’re right. Luigi has the Raiders with a small advantage. And although the win probability model says the Steelers are small favorites, the point differential model says the 49ers are small favorites. They often agree, but they don’t have to.
Simmons: Bill’s picks are here. I opened up a 7 game lead on him last week, so hopefully I can ride it through the rest of the way. According to the gambling posts on ESPN Insider, Bill is in the running to make the money in the SuperContest this year if he makes a solid run. I am too, although I’m using Bodog/Bovada lines instead of Hilton. My SuperContest picks this week would be the Jaguars (already wrong, as noted), the Chargers, the Bucs (already wrong), the Redskins, and the Browns. I have to say, I don’t feel great about any of those. But if I can go 3-0 on the games that haven’t already happened, I’ll be in a reasonable position to hit my goal.