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Monthly Archives: January 2012
Welcome to the APBR Board!
My retrodiction post apparently got its own thread over at the APBR board. I would say I’m honored, except it seemed to get treated pretty harshly. I’ll try to address the issues that were brought up over there.
NBA Retrodiction Contest: Blend Update
A couple of people asked about potential overfitting for the blends I mentioned in the last retrodiction post. After a couple days of waiting for the iterations to run, mixed with multiple restarts for completely unnecessary computer lock-ups, here you … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged APM, ASPM, ezPM, NBA, PER, RAPM, Win Shares, Wins Produced
18 Comments
NBA Retrodiction Contest Part 3: The Perfect Blend
In the first two posts in this series I looked at how well various NBA productivity metrics can explain what happened and predict what will happen. But I think at least some people would say that they would never stick … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged APM, ASPM, ezPM, NBA, PER, RAPM, Win Shares, Wins Produced
24 Comments
NBA Retrodiction Contest Part 2: The Goods
In part 1 I tantalized you with the ability of different NBA productivity metrics to explain what happened. This time we get to the important part, which is their ability to predict the next season.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged APM, ASPM, ezPM, NBA, PER, RAPM, Win Shares, Wins Produced
22 Comments
NFL Conference Championship Round-Up
There were a couple of close games this weekend if you didn’t watch them. Here’s the breakdown.
NBA Retrodiction Contest Part 1: What Happened?
So with my happy new database, I’ve been sitting on updating my project of predicting past outcomes to compare different NBA productivity metrics. But that is true no more. Here goes.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged APM, ASPM, ezPM, NBA, PER, RAPM, Win Shares, Wins Produced
19 Comments
NFL Conference Championship Picks
It’s almost football time! It’s at least a day earlier than usual, but here are my conference game picks since all the info is already out there.
All is Quiet
I was going to start a series updating the ability of the different NBA productivity metrics to predict future outcomes today, but then I remembered that if certain bills were passed by Congress, I could very easily have my website … Continue reading
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2 Comments
NFL Divisional Round Round-Up
I’d say it was a pretty good weekend, with three of four games being reasonably exciting. Here’s the low-down based on my predictions from Saturday.
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NFL Divisional Round Picks
I was going to run my divisional picks the same way I did the wild card picks, but it turns out that Bill Barnwell at Grantland did essentially what I would have done, but in longer format. So I’ll just … Continue reading
