The most bittersweet day of the football season is upon us. The good news is that today we should see a good football game and decide who the best team was this season (to the extent the playoffs tell us that). The bad news is that after the game ends, there will be no football until September. Enjoy the game while it lasts.
I’m sure you’ve seen all the Super Bowl coverage you care to at this point, and I already made my pick when the game was set, but I’ll rehash it here with the current lines. Bovada currently has the Pats -3, as do many places. The only issue is what odds you can get for them; I’ve seen a range from +115 to -120. The Giants appear to be the public favorite this year, so the line has been moving towards them in general but casinos don’t want to move off of -3 to -2.5 because if the Pats do win by 3 it could cause some hardships. In any event, Luigi likes the Pats by a little over four, so I’m running with the Pats to cover.
The game is also pretty close on the moneyline. Bovada has it at -140/+120, which seems to be fairly typical. I give the Pats about a 63% chance of winning, which makes them worth a look. Also, the over/under is set at 54 right now. Luigi thinks it’ll be closer to 51, so it would take the under. Of course, Luigi has been pretty bad with the over/under, so take this with a grain of salt.
In general, the numbers have moved towards the Giants for both the spread and the moneyline and towards the under. That would usually be a bad sign for my spread/moneyline picks but good for my over/under pick. However, the Super Bowl isn’t a typical game; it’s driven much more by public picks than a regular season game. So that rule of thumb (you want to be in the direction of the line moves) may not apply as well. I’m optimistic the Patriots will pull this one out, but we’ll see how it goes.