NBA Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Predictions

Well, you win some and you lose some.  This year has happened to have three coin-flip series from my point of view, and I missed on all three of them.  And the NHL is, well, hockey.  And so we have the 8th seed in the West playing the 6 seed in the East for the Cup.  Here’s what I see happening:

In the NBA, I already covered the Spurs-Thunder series.  I appear to be with the consensus on this one, as everyone else in the Smackdown has the Spurs in 5 to 7 and I have them in 6.  Looking at the Heat and Celtics (for which the Smackdown picks aren’t up yet), the Heat have home court and were 3.5 points better in the regular season.  They don’t have Bosh and they lost the season series to Boston, but the model cares not.   3.5 points of differential is a lot; I give the Heat a 82% chance of winning the series and see Boston winning one game (narrowly over two).

In terms of the Smackdown, I’m dead; I couldn’t catch the guy in first now unless I purposefully went against him in the three remaining series and was spot-on each time.  Then we would tie.  But I do have some other things going on.  The only other people to participate (if you count this as me participating) in every Smackdown are Henry’s mom and John Hollinger.  Even with my crummy year, I’m still up 7 points on Hollinger for the all-time Smackdown points lead.  So we’ll see if I can maintain that.  Other people with long histories (have only missed one season )include Ilardi, who I’m crushing, and Ma, who I have by about 20 points.  We’ll see if I can maintain or extend my historical leads on the rest of the group.

Moving to hockey, the Devils are the higher seed, have home ice, and have the benefit of having four more goals of differential than the Kings.  Of course, none of these things seem to have mattered this year.  So I have the Devils as the favorite, winning the Cup 51.7% of the time.  The Kings should take two games, narrowly favored over one.  Obviously I won’t be surprised if the Kings sweep the series.  Hockey is a hell of a sport.

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