Why I Don’t Trust QBR or Football Outsiders

I usually enjoy reading Bill Barnwell’s articles, so I would recommend giving this one a read anyway.  But in particular, focus in on the two paragraphs following the quote from Casserly.  If the people working for an NFL team are uncomfortable rating plays for other teams because of the uncertainty and guesswork involved, why would you trust ESPN or anyone else to reliably figure out what’s going on and use it in their own (proprietary) statistics?  The line is probably harder to grade than other positions, but uncertainty travels up to pre-snap adjustments and receiver route changes based on how the defender plays after the snap.  There’s a lot of noise there, friends, and only 16 games.

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