Why I Don’t Trust QBR or Football Outsiders

I usually enjoy reading Bill Barnwell’s articles, so I would recommend giving this one a read anyway.  But in particular, focus in on the two paragraphs following the quote from Casserly.  If the people working for an NFL team are uncomfortable rating plays for other teams because of the uncertainty and guesswork involved, why would you trust ESPN or anyone else to reliably figure out what’s going on and use it in their own (proprietary) statistics?  The line is probably harder to grade than other positions, but uncertainty travels up to pre-snap adjustments and receiver route changes based on how the defender plays after the snap.  There’s a lot of noise there, friends, and only 16 games.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s