NFL Week 2 Picks

The week didn’t start out quite the way I was hoping as far as predictions go, but on the plus side the Lions’ two main competitors in the NFC North are only 1-1 now.  That’ll be nice when things probably don’t go well against the 49ers tomorrow.  That’s my opinion at least; what do the models say?

As is tradition, I’ll start with the over/under picks.  Yoshi 1 was right to go under on the Packers/Bears game.

home away Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 SBR Consensus Over/Under
GB Chicago 53.6 41.4 51.3 51 at -105
SF Detroit 46.7 41.8 46.1 46 at -110
Buffalo KC 50.4 41.6 49.2 44.5 at -110
Cincy Cleveland 37.6 41.4 38.4 39.5 at -110
Indy Minnesota 51.1 41.6 49.4 45.5 at -110
Miami Oakland 37.1 40.9 37.5 39 at -110
NE Arizona 42.4 41.4 42.0 48 at -110
Giants TB 37.4 40.9 40.1 43.5 at -110
Philly Baltimore 46.8 41.9 46.3 46 at -110
Carolina NO 47.7 42.0 45.8 51.5 at -110
Jacksonville Houston 44.7 41.4 44.7 41 at -110
StL Washington 56.7 41.4 53.0 44 at -110
Seattle Dallas 45.8 41.5 45.1 42.5 at -110
Pittsburgh Jets 55.4 41.9 52.7 42.5 at -110
SD Tennessee 44.4 41.4 43.5 43 at -110
Atlanta Denver 55.5 41.4 52.8 51 at -110

Again, you notice that Yoshi 1 is strongly driving everything towards the average. And again, these picks are mostly just to keep track while I figure out if they’re worth tracking at all. I don’t have a lot of faith in them.

And now the win probabilities.  Yoshi 1 was least wrong (maybe?) by giving the Packers the best chances.  The Lions actually don’t look too bad for their game.  Why?  Well, one reason is that even with the interceptions, the Lions were pretty efficient passing the ball (346 yards on 49 dropbacks).  Passing efficiency is pretty important, so that helps them out a lot.  I, for one, am going to continue being the pessimistic Detroit fan.  I prefer to be pleasantly surprised.

home away Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 SBR Consensus Moneyline
GB Chicago .165 .455 .372 -220/+200
SF Detroit .486 .459 .561 -290/+245
Buffalo KC .47 .495 .491 -170/+150
Cincy Cleveland .365 .589 .556 -320/+260
Indy Minnesota .205 .504 .331 +140/-160
Miami Oakland .596 .588 .510 +115/-135
NE Arizona .927 .610 .683 -800/+550
Giants TB .273 .483 .365 -340/+280
Philly Baltimore .120 .519 .246 -142/+122
Carolina NO .726 .601 .632 +112/-132
Jacksonville Houston .373 .617 .425 +260/-320
StL Washington .267 .561 .385 +170/-200
Seattle Dallas .159 .458 .236 +165/-190
Pittsburgh Jets .283 .578 .319 -245/+205
SD Tennessee .833 .608 .668 -290/+245
Atlanta Denver .601 .585 .596 -165/+145

And now the picks against the spread.  If you don’t know what the spread is, think of the spread as a handicap. Green Bay was -5 against the Bears, which (sort of) means that Vegas thought that it would be ‘fair’ if the Packers started at -5. As far as the spread is concerned, if the Packers won even after subtracting 5 from their score, they ‘won’ (covered the spread). Had the Bears been within 5 or won outright, they would have covered the spread. Making things slightly more confusing, my picks are presented in kind of the opposite fashion.  If the Packers are listed at -11.8 (as Luigi thought), that means I think the Packers would lose by about 12 points. Obviously all the models were wrong about Thursday, although again Yoshi 1 was ‘least wrong’.

home away Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 SBR Consensus Over/Under
GB Chicago -11.8 1.51 -8.84 -5 at -110
SF Detroit -1.57 1.03 -.22 -7 at -100
Buffalo KC -1.63 -3.70 -1.18 -3 at -115
Cincy Cleveland -8.30 2.40 -4.13 -7 at -110
Indy Minnesota -8.51 -1.85 -7.23 3 at -110
Miami Oakland 2.78 4.33 1.57 1 at 105
NE Arizona 15.9 7.42 14.3 -13.5 at -110
Giants TB -4.9 1.9 -3.4 -8 at 110
Philly Baltimore -10.6 0.1 -9.1 -1 at -130
Carolina NO 7.5 5.4 5.8 1.5 at -100
Jacksonville Houston -5.8 3.7 -4.9 8 at -135
StL Washington -3.4 1.4 -2.9 3.5 at -115
Seattle Dallas -11.3 -1.3 -8.9 3.5 at -115
Pittsburgh Jets -11.5 1.2 -8.8 -5 at -110
SD Tennessee 10.1 6.4 8.9 -7 at -100
Atlanta Denver 5.8 4.3 5.4 -3 at -125

Keep in mind that Luigi’s accuracy (and I assume this will also be true for the Yoshis) increases as its prediction gets farther away from the spread. So I recommend skipping any prediction within a point of the line, like Rams-Redskins (Rams expected to lose by 3.4, line has Rams losing by 3.5).

Next, we get to Bill Simmons’ picks.  He has his own lines and picks every game against the spread, so I’ll pick every game as well (even if the prediction is too close to the line for my taste) and list his line along with the picks for each model.

home away Simmons Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 Simmons Pick
GB Chicago -5.5 Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago
SF Detroit -7 Detroit Detroit Detroit SF
Buffalo KC -3 KC KC KC KC
Cincy Cleveland -7 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cincy
Indy Minnesota 1.5 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
Miami Oakland 2.5 Miami Miami Miami Miami
NE Arizona -14 NE Arizona NE NE
Giants TB -7 TB TB TB TB
Philly Baltimore -2 Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore
Carolina NO 3 Carolina Carolina Carolina Carolina
Jacksonville Houston 7 Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville
StL Washington 3.5 StL StL StL StL
Seattle Dallas 3 Dallas Seattle Dallas Seattle
Pittsburgh Jets -5.5 Jets Jets Jets Jets
SD Tennessee -6 SD SD SD SD
Atlanta Denver -3 Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta

So there’s actually a ton of overlap this week.  There are actually only two games where any model disagrees with Bill, and both are Yoshi 1.  We’ll see how it goes.

Finally, we have my SuperContest picks.  I pick my five games by the biggest difference between Luigi’s prediction and the Hilton spread.  I’ll keep track of the Yoshis as well though.  Luigi’s picks are Chicago +6 (already wrong), Jets +6, Browns +7, Tampa +7.5, and Ravens +2.5.  Yoshi 2 makes all the same picks, so he’s also 0-1 to start.  Yoshi 1 is taking Jacksonville +7, Carolina +2.5, Miami +2.5, Kansas City +3, and Arizona +13.5.  Those are a completely different set of games; it’ll be interesting to see if that keeps up over the course of the season, and if so if they turn out better than the other two models.

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