Sorry for the picks getting up late. I’m catching up on the Michigan-Notre Dame game on DVR, knowing what the result will be. I haven’t finished the whole thing yet, but so far I think the best thing for everyone involved would be to drop both teams in the rankings and pretend the whole thing never happened. Let’s move on to the NFL.
As is tradition, I’ll start with the over/under picks. Yoshi 1 was right to go under on the Giants/Panthers game while Luigi missed on the over; Yoshi 2 was technically over but it was a pretty close call.
|home||away||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2||SBR Consensus Over/Under|
|Carolina||Giants||51.5||43.0||49.9||49 at -105|
|Tennessee||Detroit||47.5||43.0||46.0||47 at -105|
|Chicago||StL||47.7||43.0||46.6||41.5 at -105|
|Cleveland||Buffalo||47.1||43.0||46.3||45.5 at -105|
|Dallas||TB||45.1||43.0||44.8||46 at -105|
|Indy||Jacksonville||46.3||43.0||45.0||42 at -105|
|Miami||Jets||45.8||43.0||44.8||40.5 at -105|
|Minnesota||SF||47.1||43.0||46.5||43 at -110|
|NO||KC||49.0||43.0||48.0||52 at -105|
|Washington||Cincy||51.7||43.1||49.7||49.5 at -105|
|Arizona||Philly||42.5||43.0||42.6||42 at -105|
|SD||Atlanta||47.6||43.0||46.5||47 at -110|
|Denver||Houston||45.5||43.0||45.0||44 at -105|
|Oakland||Pittsburgh||46.7||43.0||45.3||44.5 at -110|
|Baltimore||NE||45.7||43.0||45.7||48.5 at -110|
|Seattle||GB||40.8||43.0||41.7||44 at -110|
Yoshi 1 had pretty much the same pick for every game, because I think the week 3 results just don’t converge to much of anything for the total. Thus it just picked the week 3 average total for virtually every game. Maybe that’s a good way to go? We’ll see. You’ll notice a bit of the same for the win percentage picks.
Right now the NFC West is kind of interesting. Arizona seems somehow threatening, and Seattle might be good given that they clobbered Dallas and lost close to those same Cardinals. I’m curious to see how their games turn out against the Eagles and Packers, two should-be-good teams.
|home||away||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2||SBR Consensus Moneyline|
As a side note, I don’t know why Minnesota is supposed to be competitive with the 49ers.
The models were a bit high on Carolina. But for what it’s worth, Luigi and Yoshi 2 had the number so close to the spread that they would have skipped the game. Here’s what they see for this week.
|home||away||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2||SBR Consensus Spread|
|Carolina||Giants||3.0||.8||3.1||-2.5 at -110|
|Tennessee||Detroit||-9.7||1.1||-6.3||3.5 at -110|
|Chicago||StL||7.8||2.2||5.8||-7 at -100|
|Cleveland||Buffalo||-1.4||1.1||-.9||2.5 at -100|
|Dallas||TB||-.6||-.1||.2||-8 at -105|
|Indy||Jacksonville||6.2||2.2||5.4||-3 at -115|
|Miami||Jets||3.0||2.2||2.6||2.5 at -100|
|Minnesota||SF||.4||-4.0||1.1||6.5 at 105|
|NO||KC||6.7||3.3||5.5||-8 at -110|
|Washington||Cincy||11.7||3.1||9.4||-3 at -115|
|Arizona||Philly||.2||1.7||.9||3 at 110|
|SD||Atlanta||6.3||-1.5||4.8||-3 at -115|
|Denver||Houston||-.6||-1.2||-.8||1.5 at -110|
|Oakland||Pittsburgh||-5.2||-2.4||-3.0||4 at -110|
|Baltimore||NE||3.3||2.7||2.9||-2.5 at -115|
|Seattle||GB||2.9||.4||2.3||3 at -100|
Keep in mind that Luigi’s accuracy (and I assume this will also be true for the Yoshis) increases as its prediction gets farther away from the spread. Pass on any games where the prediction is within a point of the spread, and be wary if it’s close.
Next, we get to Bill Simmons’ picks. He has his own lines and picks every game against the spread, so I’ll pick every game as well (even if the prediction is too close to the line for my taste) and list his line along with the picks for each model.
|home||away||Simmons Line||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2||Simmons Pick|
We get some disagreements this week, so we’ll see if I can pick up a couple games on Simmons.
Finally, we have my SuperContest picks. I pick my five games by the biggest difference between Luigi’s prediction and the Hilton spread. I’ll keep track of the Yoshis as well though. Luigi’s picks are Washington -3.5, Detroit -3.5, Tampa +7, Miami +3, and Minnesota +7. Yoshi 2 picks Minnesota, Tampa, Washington, Miami, and Arizona +4 instead of Detroit. Yoshi 1 takes Tampa, Arizona, Kansas City +8.5, St. Louis +7.5, and Miami. So we get a little overlap this week; hopefully those games go my way.