NFL Week 3 Picks

Sorry for the picks getting up late.  I’m catching up on the Michigan-Notre Dame game on DVR, knowing what the result will be.  I haven’t finished the whole thing yet, but so far I think the best thing for everyone involved would be to drop both teams in the rankings and pretend the whole thing never happened.  Let’s move on to the NFL.

As is tradition, I’ll start with the over/under picks. Yoshi 1 was right to go under on the Giants/Panthers game while Luigi missed on the over; Yoshi 2 was technically over but it was a pretty close call.

home away Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 SBR Consensus Over/Under
Carolina Giants 51.5 43.0 49.9 49 at -105
Tennessee Detroit 47.5 43.0 46.0 47 at -105
Chicago StL 47.7 43.0 46.6 41.5 at -105
Cleveland Buffalo 47.1 43.0 46.3 45.5 at -105
Dallas TB 45.1 43.0 44.8 46 at -105
Indy Jacksonville 46.3 43.0 45.0 42 at -105
Miami Jets 45.8 43.0 44.8 40.5 at -105
Minnesota SF 47.1 43.0 46.5 43 at -110
NO KC 49.0 43.0 48.0 52 at -105
Washington Cincy 51.7 43.1 49.7 49.5 at -105
Arizona Philly 42.5 43.0 42.6 42 at -105
SD Atlanta 47.6 43.0 46.5 47 at -110
Denver Houston 45.5 43.0 45.0 44 at -105
Oakland Pittsburgh 46.7 43.0 45.3 44.5 at -110
Baltimore NE 45.7 43.0 45.7 48.5 at -110
Seattle GB 40.8 43.0 41.7 44 at -110

Yoshi 1 had pretty much the same pick for every game, because I think the week 3 results just don’t converge to much of anything for the total.  Thus it just picked the week 3 average total for virtually every game.  Maybe that’s a good way to go?  We’ll see.  You’ll notice a bit of the same for the win percentage picks.

Right now the NFC West is kind of interesting.  Arizona seems somehow threatening, and Seattle might be good given that they clobbered Dallas and lost close to those same Cardinals.  I’m curious to see how their games turn out against the Eagles and Packers, two should-be-good teams.

home away Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 SBR Consensus Moneyline
Carolina Giants .550 .557 .567 -140/+130
Tennessee Detroit .254 .564 .447 175/-190
Chicago StL .737 .585 .610 -310/280
Cleveland Buffalo .441 .614 .497 127/-137
Dallas TB .508 .568 .536 -385/345
Indy Jacksonville .698 .557 .618 -170/160
Miami Jets .646 .557 .573 125/-135
Minnesota SF .452 .542 .521 265/-295
NO KC .736 .619 .632 -385/345
Washington Cincy .841 .727 .689 -167/157
Arizona Philly .502 .557 .554 157/-167
SD Atlanta .737 .557 .601 -165/155
Denver Houston .475 .466 .485 112/-122
Oakland Pittsburgh .308 .458 .466 175/-195
Baltimore NE .570 .557 .564 -140/130
Seattle GB .582 .557 .558 155/-175

As a side note, I don’t know why Minnesota is supposed to be competitive with the 49ers.

The models were a bit high on Carolina.  But for what it’s worth, Luigi and Yoshi 2 had the number so close to the spread that they would have skipped the game.   Here’s what they see for this week.

home away Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 SBR Consensus Spread
Carolina Giants 3.0 .8 3.1 -2.5 at -110
Tennessee Detroit -9.7 1.1 -6.3 3.5 at -110
Chicago StL 7.8 2.2 5.8 -7 at -100
Cleveland Buffalo -1.4 1.1 -.9 2.5 at -100
Dallas TB -.6 -.1 .2 -8 at -105
Indy Jacksonville 6.2 2.2 5.4 -3 at -115
Miami Jets 3.0 2.2 2.6 2.5 at -100
Minnesota SF .4 -4.0 1.1 6.5 at 105
NO KC 6.7 3.3 5.5 -8 at -110
Washington Cincy 11.7 3.1 9.4 -3 at -115
Arizona Philly .2 1.7 .9 3 at 110
SD Atlanta 6.3 -1.5 4.8 -3 at -115
Denver Houston -.6 -1.2 -.8 1.5 at -110
Oakland Pittsburgh -5.2 -2.4 -3.0 4 at -110
Baltimore NE 3.3 2.7 2.9 -2.5 at -115
Seattle GB 2.9 .4 2.3 3 at -100

Keep in mind that Luigi’s accuracy (and I assume this will also be true for the Yoshis) increases as its prediction gets farther away from the spread.  Pass on any games where the prediction is within a point of the spread, and be wary if it’s close.

Next, we get to Bill Simmons’ picks. He has his own lines and picks every game against the spread, so I’ll pick every game as well (even if the prediction is too close to the line for my taste) and list his line along with the picks for each model.

home away Simmons Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2 Simmons Pick
Carolina Giants -2.5 Carolina Giants Carolina Carolina
Tennessee Detroit 3.5 Detroit Tennessee Detroit Detroit
Chicago StL -7.5 Chicago StL StL Chicago
Cleveland Buffalo 3 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
Dallas TB -8 TB TB TB Dallas
Indy Jacksonville -3 Indy Jacksonville Indy Indy
Miami Jets 2.5 Miami Miami Miami Jets
Minnesota SF 7 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota SF
NO KC -9 KC KC KC KC
Washington Cincy -3 Washington Washington Washington Cincy
Arizona Philly 3.5 Arizona Arizona Arizona Arizona
SD Atlanta -3 SD Atlanta SD Atlanta
Denver Houston 2 Denver Denver Denver Houston
Oakland Pittsburgh 4 Pittsburgh Oakland Oakland Oakland
Baltimore NE -2.5 Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore
Seattle GB 3.5 Seattle Seattle Seattle Seattle

We get some disagreements this week, so we’ll see if I can pick up a couple games on Simmons.

Finally, we have my SuperContest picks. I pick my five games by the biggest difference between Luigi’s prediction and the Hilton spread. I’ll keep track of the Yoshis as well though. Luigi’s picks are Washington -3.5, Detroit -3.5, Tampa +7, Miami +3, and Minnesota +7.  Yoshi 2 picks Minnesota, Tampa, Washington, Miami, and Arizona +4 instead of Detroit.  Yoshi 1 takes Tampa, Arizona, Kansas City +8.5, St. Louis +7.5, and Miami.  So we get a little overlap this week; hopefully those games go my way.

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