Browns-Ravens Pick

After the Browns hung tough with the Eagles in week 1, we had an interesting little conundrum.  Did the Eagles just have a crummy day, turning the ball over way too much and allowing the Browns to keep things close?  Or were the Browns going to be an ok team this year, capable of hanging in with perennial powerhouses like Philly?  The last two games have helped us out a bit, as the Browns have lost twice more (although not terribly) to the Bengals and Bills.  Also, the Eagles have looked less than impressive in their other two games, although they managed to beat the Ravens.  Speaking of which, the Browns play those same Ravens tonight in Baltimore.  To probably no one’s surprise, the Ravens are the favorite.

The SBR consensus is the Ravens will win by 12.  Luigi also picks the game at 12, so he has no opinion (strictly speaking, he predicts 12.1 so he will take the Ravens to cover in the ‘pick every game’ count).  Yoshi 1, not surprisingly, has a suppressed number of 7 so he picks the Browns to cover, and Yoshi 2 is also shrunk a bit compared to Luigi and has a number of 10.7, also taking the Browns to cover.

Luigi gives the Ravens a 85% chance to win, with the Yoshis putting the number at 62% and 70% respectively.  The moneyline odds are -615/+510, so the Yoshis would each take a look at the Browns to win outright while Luigi would stay away.  For the curious, the Browns would need to win about 16% of the time for that bet to be worthwhile.

Finally, the over/under is 44.  Luigi thinks the total will be 45, Yoshi 1 44, and Yoshi 2 45.  So there’s a small preference for the over.

I don’t think the game will be a thriller, but enjoy!

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