NFL Week 6 Picks

I’m on the road, so no extra insights this week.  Just know that I went to bed before the Cardinals completed their ridiculous comeback, and I got back to my hotel in time to see the Tigers blow their 4 run lead in the 9th inning.  Just like the MLB playoffs, anything can happen in one NFL game, and it won’t matter if I get to see it or not.

For some reason, SBR doesn’t have their array of numbers up right now, so all numbers this week are from Bovada.lv.  Some games don’t have all numbers, so if something says ‘0’ chances are it’s blank.  I might be able to update things before the games start, but no promises.  Here are the over/under predictions:

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Pittsburgh 43.5 47.07 40.63 45.33
Philly Detroit 48 45.46 44.67 44.59
Atlanta Oakland 48.5 48.1 43.11 46.98
Cleveland Cincy 43 46.02 43.03 45.3
Miami StL 38 41.86 43.34 42.14
Jets Indy 44 45.97 41.22 44.86
TB KC 40.5 45.3 41.3 44.82
Baltimore Dallas 44 43.62 42.74 43.88
Arizona Buffalo 44 45.51 39.74 44.62
Seattle NE 44 45.33 47.05 45.25
SF Giants 46 47.09 48.29 46.98
Washington Minnesota 0 45.98 46.36 45.56
Houston GB 48 45.49 44.67 45.09
SD Denver 49 47.77 45.01 46.59

And the moneyline:

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Pittsburgh 230 -250 0.459 0.607 0.5
Philly Detroit -180 160 0.547 0.609 0.531
Atlanta Oakland -500 350 0.806 0.624 0.715
Cleveland Cincy 0 0 0.427 0.573 0.471
Miami StL -220 180 0.552 0.558 0.565
Jets Indy -175 155 0.52 0.624 0.516
TB KC -210 175 0.648 0.604 0.618
Baltimore Dallas -170 150 0.687 0.605 0.673
Arizona Buffalo -210 175 0.646 0.651 0.609
Seattle NE 160 -180 0.395 0.525 0.431
SF Giants -275 235 0.591 0.624 0.573
Washington Minnesota 0 0 0.522 0.662 0.542
Houston GB -190 165 0.759 0.625 0.695
SD Denver 0 0 0.554 0.492 0.54

And the spread.  The exception to the ‘0’ thing that I mentioned is the San Diego-Denver game.  Right now it’s listed as pick ’em:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Pittsburgh 6 -110 -1.62 3.79 -0.51
Philly Detroit -3.5 -100 0.57 3.94 0.6
Atlanta Oakland -10 -105 11.46 3.94 9.17
Cleveland Cincy 3 -125 -1.13 3.63 -0.81
Miami StL -4.5 -110 2.72 3.95 2.84
Jets Indy -3 -125 0.37 3.67 0.34
TB KC -4 -115 5.45 4.05 4.68
Baltimore Dallas -3.5 -105 7.66 4.25 7.18
Arizona Buffalo -4 -115 4.03 3.94 3.56
Seattle NE 4 -115 -0.58 3.13 -1.06
SF Giants -7 -100 3.97 3.55 3.29
Washington Minnesota 0 -110 1.81 3.79 2.09
Houston GB -3 -135 9.27 7.42 8.14
SD Denver 0 -110 1.87 3.94 1.62

And to wrap up, Bill Simmons’ picks:

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Tennessee Pittsburgh 7 Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
Philly Detroit -3.5 Detroit Detroit Philly Detroit
Atlanta Oakland -9 Atlanta Atlanta Oakland Atlanta
Cleveland Cincy 2 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
Miami StL -4 Miami StL StL StL
Jets Indy -3.5 Indy Indy Jets Indy
TB KC -4.5 KC TB KC TB
Baltimore Dallas -3.5 Dallas Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore
Arizona Buffalo -4.5 Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
Seattle NE 4 Seattle Seattle Seattle Seattle
SF Giants -6.5 Giants Giants Giants Giants
Washington Minnesota 3.5 Washington Washington Washington Washington
Houston GB -3.5 Houston Houston Houston Houston
SD Denver -1.5 Denver SD SD SD

The Hilton SuperContest is generous enough to keep their numbers up through Tuesday when I see how the model did, so I’ll check on those predictions when I do the wrap-up.  Enjoy the games!

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