NFL Week 6 Recap

I didn’t get to see much of any of the games since I’m on the road, but here are some things I’ve learned in the last few days: the Lions don’t want to be terrible, just frustrating; the Tigers are a team of destiny; and New Orleans is nice to visit but I don’t want to live there.  Let’s see how the models did while I was busy not looking.

The over/under was poor as usual.  There was a push as the Jets-Colts game hit 44 on the spot.  All three models were 6-7-1, giving Luigi a season record of 30-42-3, Yoshi 1 32-40-3, and Yoshi 2 32-40-3.

Picking outright winners was also a little tough.  Luigi was 6-8, Yoshi 1 10-4, and Yoshi 2 7-7.  That gives them season records of 38-37, 43-32, and 40-35.  The moneyline went better, with Luigi going 5-3, Yoshi 1 7-3, and Yoshi 2 8-5.  Basically, a lot of underdogs won, so the outright picks were iffy but the odds were tasty.  Overall Luigi is 20-48 and in the hole, Yoshi 1 is 30-39 and well ahead, and Yoshi 2 is 26-43 and just in the black.

It was a solid week for the spread picks.  In all games Luigi was 8-6 for a season record of 33-39-3, Yoshi 1 was 10-4 for a season record of 41-31-3, and Yoshi 2 was 9-5 for a season record of 35-35-3.  Picking every game is unnecessary though; looking at pickable games Luigi was 8-5 (passing on Cards-Bills) for a total of 29-26-3, Yoshi 1 skipped a number of games and went 6-1 in the rest of a total of 33-21-3, and Yoshi 2 was 7-4 for a total of 28-27-3.  So everyone is starting to move into the positive.

In the consensus picks, where all three models would make the same decision, they were 5-1 against the moneyline and just about even overall.  They also went 5-2 against the spread and 21-13 overall.  Not too shabby.

Sticking to restricted spread picks, we have the Hilton SuperContest.  Luigi’s top five games were Houston -3.5 (miss), Washington +2.5 (hit), Baltimore -3.5 (miss), Detroit +4.5 (hit), and Tennessee +5.5 (hit).  That’s 3-2 for a total record of 12-11-2.  Yoshi 1 went with Tennessee, Seattle +3.5 (hit), Washington, Houston, and Cleveland +0 (hit).  So that was a good 4-1 week for a total record of 13-11-1.  Yoshi 2 went with Tennessee, Washington, Houston, Detroit, and Baltimore for 3-2 and a 12-11-2 total.

Finally we have Bill Simmons’ picks.  Bill went 9-5 and is 42-31-2 overall.  All three models also went 9-5 for records of 34-37-2, 41-32-2, and 34-37-2.  Bill and Yoshi 1 are in a tight race, but Luigi and Yoshi 2 need to catch up.

Power rankings tomorrow!

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