NFL Week 8 Recap

I was in Boston for the weekend and got stuck an extra day, so there’s a little delay in the recap this week.  Fortunately, things weren’t that bad where we were staying with friends and we were able to fly out with no delays or problems.  I was also without my usual Sunday Ticket, so I was stuck with some uninteresting games like Monday night’s and Pats-Rams, although Giants-Cowboys turned out to be a good one.  But let’s focus on how the models did for now.

There were two pushes on the over/under, with Jets-Miami getting 39 and KC-Oakland getting 42 on the nose.  All three models went 6-6-2.  That gives Luigi a season record of 38-59-5, Yoshi 1 45-52-5, and Yoshi 2 a record of 41-56-5.

In terms of outright winners, Luigi was 11-3, Yoshi 1 8-6, and Yoshi 2 10-4.  That gives them season records of 58-44, 59-43, and 58-44.  After a strong start to the season, it appears that Yoshi 1’s tendency to practically always pick the home team is starting to cost him.  Typically, when the outright picks go well the moneyline picks do poorly, because it means that underdogs aren’t winning enough.  That wasn’t the case this week though.  Luigi was 5-5, good for a profitable week (although still unprofitable on the season with a record of 27-64).  Yoshi 1 did not do as well, only going 3-10.  This week finally put him in the red as well, with a season record of 34-61.  Yoshi 2 was barely positive with a record of 5-7, and is also in the red overall at 33-61.  The consensus picks also had an off week at 2-5.

Picking all games against the spread, Luigi was 6-8 for a season record of 42-55-5, Yoshi 1 was 7-7 for a season record of 53-44-5, and Yoshi 2 was also 7-7 for a season record of 45-52-5.  But you don’t have to pick every game.  In their limited picks, Luigi was 5-5 for a season record of 36-38-5, Yoshi 1 was 4-6 for a season record of 42-33-5, and Yoshi 2 was 5-4 for a season record of 36-36-5.  The consensus picks, where all three models agree on what to do, were 4-3 for a season record of 27-21-2.

For the Hilton SuperContest, I take the five games where the model most disagrees with the Hilton’s line and use those for my choices.  They haven’t been doing especially well so far, fitting with the general crumminess of the season.  This past weekend Luigi would have gone with Atlanta +2.5 (win), Rams +7 (loss), Colts +3.5 (win), Tampa +6.5 (win), and out of a slew of similar choices, Arizona +6.5 (loss) (Chicago, Cleveland, and Jacksonville were similar picks and 2 of those 3 were correct).  That’s a record of 3-2 for a season total of 16-17-2.  Yoshi 1 would have gone with the Rams (loss), Jacksonville +14 (win), Cleveland +2.5 (win), Arizona (loss), and Kansas City -2 (loss).  That’s a record of 2-3 for a season total of 16-18-1.  Finally, Yoshi 2 would have gone with Rams (loss), Atlanta (win), Jacksonville (win), Tampa (win), and Arizona (loss).  That’s a record of 3-2 for a total of 16-17-2.

As usual, I’ll wrap up with Bill Simmons.  He was 8-6 against his lines.  Luigi was 7-7, Yoshi 1 was 5-9, and Yoshi 2 was 7-7.  That gives everyone season records (starting with Bill) of 56-43-3, 44-55-3, 50-47-3, and 43-56-3.  Bill’s starting to get fairly far out in front of the models; this might be his year.

 

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