Bills-Dolphins Pick

I’m on the road yet again, so a quick pick without much commentary.  Miami and Buffalo are both below-average teams, so there isn’t a whole lot at stake here.  But for what it’s worth, Miami is 4-5 and could theoretically make a run.  Counting tonight they only have three road games left; they play Buffalo twice as well as the Jaguars; and their week 17 game is against the Patriots, who may not be trying their hardest at that point.  If we assume they can pull those wins out, the Dolphins would be 8-5 and have three games against Seattle, San Fran, and a first game against the Patriots.  They might need two wins out of those three, which is something of a tall order.  But for them to have any chance at the post season, they need to start with a win tonight.

The spread is Bills -2.5 with a moneyline of -132/+122 and an over/under of 45.  None of the models like Buffalo to win by that much, and Yoshi 1 actually has them losing handily, so I would lean towards Miami.  Only Yoshi 1 thinks it’s worth taking the Dolphins against the moneyline, however.  Both Luigi and Yoshi 2 think that the total will be just over 45 while Yoshi 1 thinks it will be under, although your guess is as good (or better) than theirs.

Enjoy the game!  The rest of the picks will go up when I get a chance to do them; there’s a decent likelihood it’ll be Saturday night instead of Sunday morning, but we’ll see what happens.

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