We’ve nearly hit the end of my travel time for the year, but not quite. I was out of town for the weekend and only got to see part of the Lions-Packers game, so I don’t have much to say about any of the games besides that I knew the Lions were going to lose when they kicked a field goal on 4th and goal in the fourth quarter. Let’s focus on the models instead.
The over/unders added another push to the record thanks to the Saints and Raiders hitting 55. Luigi and Yoshi 2 were both 5-8-1 while Yoshi 1 was 9-4-1. That puts their season records at 53-85-6 for Luigi, 70-68-6 for Yoshi 1, and 58-80-6 for Yoshi 2.
Picking winners has done a 180 from the beginning of the season, when teams were winning with no regard for common sense. This week Luigi was 13-1, Yoshi 1 7-7, and Yoshi 2 11-3. Now I will point out that the model shouldn’t be expected to do so well; in fact, it should be wrong sometimes. If a team has a 75% chance of winning, the model should be wrong 25% of the time. That being said, the winner picks were below chance, let alone below a reasonable level of performance (say, around 57% of so just for taking the home team). So it’s nice to see some above-average weeks recently. On the season, Luigi is 90-53-1, Yoshi 1 is 84-58-1, and Yoshi 2 is 88-55-1.
The moneyline picks didn’t go as well, thanks to so many favorites winning. Luigi was 2-10, Yoshi 1 1-13, and Yoshi 2 1-12. The only ‘underdog’ that won was the Jets, who the models actually favored, and Luigi liked Tampa enough to take them as a favorite. On the season Luigi is 38-92-1, Yoshi 1 is 44-81-1, and Yoshi 2 is 41-89-1.
Picking all games against the spread, Luigi and Yoshi 2 were 8-6 while Yoshi 1 was 11-3. That puts their season records at 62-77-5, 79-60-5, and 65-74-5. In pickable games, Luigi was 5-4, Yoshi 1 was 9-3, and Yoshi 2 was 6-6. Those season records are 53-53-5, 63-48-5, and 52-55-5. The consensus picks, where all three models would do the same thing, were 4-3 for a season record of 38-31-2.
The Hilton SuperContest picks involve me picking the top 5 games for each model. Luigi would have gone with Colts +9.5 (loss), Chicago +4 (loss), Pittsburgh +3.5 (win), Cleveland +7.5 (win), and Jacksonville +15 (win). That 3-2 week puts the season total at 26-22-2. Yoshi 1 would have gone with Indy +9.5, Green Bay -3 (win), Miami +1.5 (loss), New Orleans -4.5 (win), and Tampa -1.5 (win). 3-2 puts the season total at 24-25-1. Yoshi 2 went with Jacksonville, Indy, Pittsburgh, Detroit +3, and Cleveland. Another 3-2 puts the season total at 26-22-2.
Finally we have Bill Simmons. Bill bounced back from last week’s fiasco by going 10-4, while Luigi went 8-6, Yoshi 1 11-3, and Yoshi 2 7-7. That puts the season records at 77-64-3, 68-73-3, 75-66-3, and 63-78-3.
Hopefully I’ll be able to get the rest of the usual posts up on time this week, but we’ll see what travel does to my internet access. If I miss out, have a great Thanksgiving!