NFL Week 11 Recap

We’ve nearly hit the end of my travel time for the year, but not quite.  I was out of town for the weekend and only got to see part of the Lions-Packers game, so I don’t have much to say about any of the games besides that I knew the Lions were going to lose when they kicked a field goal on 4th and goal in the fourth quarter.  Let’s focus on the models instead.

The over/unders added another push to the record thanks to the Saints and Raiders hitting 55.  Luigi and Yoshi 2 were both 5-8-1 while Yoshi 1 was 9-4-1.  That puts their season records at 53-85-6 for Luigi, 70-68-6 for Yoshi 1, and 58-80-6 for Yoshi 2.

Picking winners has done a 180 from the beginning of the season, when teams were winning with no regard for common sense.  This week Luigi was 13-1, Yoshi 1 7-7, and Yoshi 2 11-3.  Now I will point out that the model shouldn’t be expected to do so well; in fact, it should be wrong sometimes.  If a team has a 75% chance of winning, the model should be wrong 25% of the time.  That being said, the winner picks were below chance, let alone below a reasonable level of performance (say, around 57% of so just for taking the home team).  So it’s nice to see some above-average weeks recently.  On the season, Luigi is 90-53-1, Yoshi 1 is 84-58-1, and Yoshi 2 is 88-55-1.

The moneyline picks didn’t go as well, thanks to so many favorites winning.  Luigi was 2-10, Yoshi 1 1-13, and Yoshi 2 1-12.  The only ‘underdog’ that won was the Jets, who the models actually favored, and Luigi liked Tampa enough to take them as a favorite.  On the season Luigi is 38-92-1, Yoshi 1 is 44-81-1, and Yoshi 2 is 41-89-1.

Picking all games against the spread, Luigi and Yoshi 2 were 8-6 while Yoshi 1 was 11-3.  That puts their season records at 62-77-5, 79-60-5, and 65-74-5.  In pickable games, Luigi was 5-4, Yoshi 1 was 9-3, and Yoshi 2 was 6-6.  Those season records are 53-53-5, 63-48-5, and 52-55-5.  The consensus picks, where all three models would do the same thing, were 4-3 for a season record of 38-31-2.

The Hilton SuperContest picks involve me picking the top 5 games for each model.  Luigi would have gone with Colts +9.5 (loss), Chicago +4 (loss), Pittsburgh +3.5 (win), Cleveland +7.5 (win), and Jacksonville +15 (win).  That 3-2 week puts the season total at 26-22-2.  Yoshi 1 would have gone with Indy +9.5, Green Bay -3 (win), Miami +1.5 (loss), New Orleans -4.5 (win), and Tampa -1.5 (win).  3-2 puts the season total at 24-25-1.  Yoshi 2 went with Jacksonville, Indy, Pittsburgh, Detroit +3, and Cleveland.  Another 3-2 puts the season total at 26-22-2.

Finally we have Bill Simmons.  Bill bounced back from last week’s fiasco by going 10-4, while Luigi went 8-6, Yoshi 1 11-3, and Yoshi 2 7-7.  That puts the season records at 77-64-3, 68-73-3, 75-66-3, and 63-78-3.

Hopefully I’ll be able to get the rest of the usual posts up on time this week, but we’ll see what travel does to my internet access.  If I miss out, have a great Thanksgiving!

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