NFL Week 12 Leftover Picks

We already had three games this week, but thanks to the bye weeks ending there are still 13 games tomorrow.  I’m going to be driving while they happen, but I hope they’re good ones for those of you who aren’t making any post-holiday trips.  Things have gone well enough for the models so far: Luigi passed on the spread for all three games but went 1-1 on the moneyline; Yoshi 1 was 2-0-1 on the spread (Houston-Detroit was a push) and was 1-2 on the moneyline; and Yoshi 2 was 0-1 on the spread and 1-2 on the moneyline.  Let’s see what the rest of the numbers look like.

Here are the over/under predictions.  As always, you should ignore these.  But I can take the time to let you know that a few numbers aren’t available yet (this is being written Saturday evening), like pretty much anything for Chicago-Minnesota.  In those cases I put in a best guess, but you should basically pay attention to what the models predict.  When I do the recap on Tuesday, I’ll use numbers that I get tomorrow even if I don’t update this post.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit Houston 50.5 47.57 44.28 46.69
Dallas Washington 48 46.42 44.28 45.7
Jets NE 48 49.35 44.28 48.02
Chicago Minnesota 40 44.14 44.28 44.48
Cincy Oakland 50.5 48.27 44.69 47.1
Cleveland Pittsburgh 34.5 43.88 44.18 43.74
Indy Buffalo 51 46.19 44.28 45.55
KC Denver 44 45.16 44.69 44.64
Miami Seattle 37.5 42.74 44.19 43.03
TB Atlanta 51 48.16 44.65 47.28
Jacksonville Tennessee 44.5 44.93 44.82 44.29
SD Baltimore 47 46.18 44.89 45.63
NO SF 49 47.24 45.13 46.7
Arizona StL 37 39.44 44.41 40.26
Giants GB 51 47.04 44.28 46.44
Philly Carolina 40.5 44.97 44.09 44.77

Here are the moneyline predictions.  There was also no moneyline for Atlanta-Tampa, San Diego-Baltimore, or San Fran-New Orleans, which I found a little odd.  They do look like close games though.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit Houston 155 -165 0.387 0.555 0.564
Dallas Washington -167 157 0.548 0.555 0.565
Jets NE 260 -290 0.304 0.349 0.562
Chicago Minnesota -300 265 0.601 0.6 0.566
Cincy Oakland -400 325 0.683 0.611 0.567
Cleveland Pittsburgh 107 -127 0.483 0.552 0.565
Indy Buffalo -147 127 0.56 0.566 0.566
KC Denver 400 -500 0.301 0.498 0.562
Miami Seattle 128 -148 0.449 0.528 0.565
TB Atlanta 107 -127 0.526 0.554 0.565
Jacksonville Tennessee 170 -200 0.456 0.54 0.565
SD Baltimore 107 -127 0.507 0.464 0.564
NO SF 107 -127 0.483 0.543 0.565
Arizona StL -128 108 0.518 0.538 0.565
Giants GB -150 130 0.6 0.563 0.566
Philly Carolina 130 -150 0.491 0.501 0.565

Here are the spread predictions.  You’ll notice that a lot of the games are predicted to be close, and many of the spreads are tight, but they aren’t necessarily in the same direction.  So Luigi, for example, has a number of picks that are more than a point away but essentially involve a team winning by 1 when the spread says they’ll lose by 1.  Should be an interesting week.

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit Houston 3 105 -3.69 -3.1 -2.36
Dallas Washington -3 -120 3.09 -0.8 2.65
Jets NE 7 -115 -6.6 -8.21 -5.21
Chicago Minnesota -6.5 -110 4.48 1.53 3.31
Cincy Oakland -9.5 110 6.3 2.55 5.6
Cleveland Pittsburgh 1.5 -110 -0.44 -3.65 0.02
Indy Buffalo -3 105 2.98 2.45 2.94
KC Denver 10.5 -110 -6.42 -7.03 -4.89
Miami Seattle 3 -115 -0.55 -0.16 0.06
TB Atlanta 1 -110 0.98 0.31 1.32
Jacksonville Tennessee 4 -110 -0.12 -3.32 0.46
SD Baltimore 1 -105 0.75 -2.96 0.48
NO SF 1 -110 0.21 0.38 0.92
Arizona StL -1 -115 2.14 -2.46 1.95
Giants GB -3 100 2.79 1.34 2.73
Philly Carolina 3 -120 -0.25 -1.13 0.27

Finally, here are Bill Simmons’ picks.  I need the rest of the season to go fairly strongly my way to catch up, so here’s hoping.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Detroit Houston 3.5 Detroit Houston Detroit Detroit
Dallas Washington -3 Dallas Dallas Washington Washington
Jets NE 7 NE Jets NE Jets
Chicago Minnesota -6 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
Cincy Oakland -8 Cincy Oakland Oakland Oakland
Cleveland Pittsburgh 3 Cleveland Cleveland Pittsburgh Cleveland
Indy Buffalo -3 Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
KC Denver 10.5 Denver KC KC KC
Miami Seattle 3 Seattle Miami Miami Miami
TB Atlanta 1 TB TB TB TB
Jacksonville Tennessee 3 Jacksonville Jacksonville Tennessee Jacksonville
SD Baltimore 1 SD SD Baltimore SD
NO SF 3 NO NO NO NO
Arizona StL -3 StL StL StL StL
Giants GB -3 Giants GB GB GB
Philly Carolina -2.5 Carolina Carolina Carolina Carolina
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