NFL Week 13 Recap

I’m not even upset that the Lions lost to the Colts.  Three reasons: 1) the Lions are not going to make the playoffs, so every loss from here on out helps by improving our draft position; b) the ways in which they keep losing makes it obvious that they are just trolling their fans, and perhaps football fans at large; and c) the models had a good week.  Let’s stick to the good news for now and cover more of the not-going-to-the-playoffs stuff tomorrow.

I’ll always have the over/under to keep me humble, but even that went ok this week.  Luigi was 10-6, Yoshi 1 was 8-8, and Yoshi 2 was 11-5.  That puts their season records at 72-98-6, 86-84-6, and 79-93-6.

Luigi picked the outright winner in 9 of the 16 games, Yoshi 1 was a ridiculous 13-3, and Yoshi 2 was also 9-7.  That puts their season records at 108-67-1, 107-66-1, and 102-73-1.  The moneyline picks went very well though.  Luigi was 7-9 (remember that they mostly pick underdogs; coming close to even is a great result), Yoshi 1 was 8-8 and Yoshi 2 was 6-10.  That puts their season records at 51-109-1, 56-99-1, and 51-109-1.  That’s still far too low on the season overall, but a nice step in the right direction.

There was one push this weekend, with the Pats beating the Dolphins by seven.  Picking every game against the spread, Luigi was 9-6-1, Yoshi 1 was 8-7-1, and Yoshi 2 was 9-6-1.  That puts their season records at 75-93-8, 94-74-7, and 79-89-7.  In pickable games, however, Luigi was 7-5-1, Yoshi 1 was 7-4-1, and Yoshi 2 was 8-6-1.  Those season records are 64-64-7, 76-58-7, and 64-67-7.  Consensus picks, where all three models made the same choice, were 6-3-1 for a season total of 46-38-4.

The top five choices go to the Hilton SuperContest.  This week, those picks for Luigi were Minnesota +9 (push), Tampa +7 (loss), Miami +7.5 (win), Rams +7 (win), and Philly +10 (win).  That 3-1-1 record puts the season total at 32-25-3.  Yoshi 1 would have gone with Rams +7, Arizona +4.5 (win), Minnesota +9, Miami +7.5, and Cleveland +0 (win).  That’s a solid 4-0-1 week for a season total of 31-27-2.  Yoshi 2 would have gone with Minnesota +9, Tampa +7, Rams +7, Miami +7.5, and Philly +10 to replicate Luigi’s 3-1-1 week as well as his season total of 32-25-3.

Finally we wrap up with Bill Simmons and his own lines.  Bill was 7-9 against his numbers while Luigi was 11-5, Yoshi 1 was 9-7, and Yoshi 2 was 11-5.  That puts everyone’s season records at 92-80-4, 84-88-4, 91-81-4, and 81-91-4.  I made up four of the 12 games I was behind; let’s see if I can keep up a late-season surge.

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