The Models Return – NFL Week 2

The week is off to a good start after Thursday night’s game, which the models said would be close.  Following tradition, we get the rest of the picks today based on lines from SBR as well as picks based on Bill Simmons’ lines.  For new(er) readers, Bill Simmons pretty much always picks every game.  It’s a daunting task and hardly anyone would look good, because you can’t beat casinos in the long run by betting every game.  Part of the potential advantage of a sports bettor is the option to not place a bet.  But in the interest of testing the model, I like to have it go up against someone who presumably has some idea of what he’s talking about.  I also like to make some picks pretending that I’m in the Hilton SuperContest.  If you lived in Vegas (or knew someone in Vegas willing to put in picks for you every week), you could pony up some money at the beginning of the season to enter the contest.  You make five picks per week and the people near the top win at the end of the season.  This gives the model two things to do: compete against some very good gamblers, and look at the benefit of limiting your bets to a smaller number of games that you’re more sure about.  So, on to the picks!

We’ll start with the spread, since that’s what I (and I assume most people) are interested in.  What you see listed are the home and away teams, the spread from SBR, and how much each of the three models thinks the home team will win by.  So for NE (the Pats) and the Jets, the line was -11.5, which means the Pats were favored by over 10 points, but the models thought the Pats would win by about 4, 5, and 4.

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
NE Jets -11.5 -105 4 5.43 3.92
Atlanta StL -5.5 -110 1.09 4.17 1.37
Buffalo Carolina 3 -105 5.46 5.65 5.45
Chicago Minnesota -6 -110 3.79 4.19 4.65
GB Washington -7 -110 5.88 4.88 5.46
Indy Miami -2.5 -110 -3.98 4.06 -1.92
KC Dallas -3 -105 9.89 5.63 8.05
Philly SD -7 -110 0.43 4.98 1.57
Baltimore Cleveland -7 -110 -3.06 4.27 -0.67
Houston Tennessee -8 -110 2.05 4.46 2.46
Arizona Detroit 2 -110 -1.99 4.85 -1.55
TB NO 3 -100 -7.79 5.49 -6.38
Oakland Jacksonville -4.5 -110 10.39 6.19 9.04
Giants Denver 4.5 -110 -4.52 5.1 -3.44
Seattle SF -3 -105 -1.53 6.25 -1.24
Cincy Pittsburgh -6 -110 8.45 5.68 6.79

Next we’ll do Simmons and his spread.  This one lists the home and away team, Bill’s line, and the pick according to Bill and each model.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
NE Jets -12 NE Jets Jets Jets
Atlanta StL -7 Atlanta StL StL StL
Buffalo Carolina 3 Carolina Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
Chicago Minnesota -6.5 Chicago Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
GB Washington -7.5 GB Washington Washington Washington
Indy Miami -3 Miami Miami Indy Miami
KC Dallas -3 KC KC KC KC
Philly SD -8.5 SD SD SD SD
Baltimore Cleveland -7 Baltimore Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
Houston Tennessee -9.5 Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
Arizona Detroit 2.5 Detroit Arizona Arizona Arizona
TB NO 4 NO NO TB NO
Oakland Jacksonville -6 Jacksonville Oakland Oakland Oakland
Giants Denver 5.5 Giants Giants Giants Giants
Seattle SF -2.5 Seattle SF Seattle SF
Cincy Pittsburgh -7 Cincy Cincy Pittsburgh Pittsburgh

Since we’re looking at spreads, let’s do the SuperContest picks.  I choose the five games by picking the five for each model where the predicted score is farthest from the line.  So for Luigi we have Cleveland +6.5, Buffalo +3, Jets +11.5 (already a winner), Chargers +7.5, and Tennessee +9.  For Yoshi 1 we have Giants +4.5, Buffalo +3, Bucs +3, Arizona +1.5, and Jets +11.5 (already a winner).  Finally for Yoshi 2 we have Buffalo +3, Jets +11.5 (winner), Cleveland +6.5, Tennessee +9, and Chargers +7.5.

Next we have the moneyline, which is odds on a team winning outright.  In this case, you have the home team, away team, home odds, away odds, and the percent chance of the home team winning according to each model.  You have to do a little math to decide if a bet is worthwhile, but I think most people are more interested in the probability and the people interested in betting are willing to do the work.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
NE Jets -545 465 0.642 0.617 0.615
Atlanta StL -240 200 0.516 0.57 0.525
Buffalo Carolina 140 -160 0.625 0.64 0.627
Chicago Minnesota -250 210 0.61 0.568 0.642
GB Washington -330 275 0.682 0.607 0.646
Indy Miami -133 123 0.396 0.537 0.47
KC Dallas -150 130 0.825 0.611 0.72
Philly SD -315 260 0.544 0.617 0.563
Baltimore Cleveland -320 260 0.408 0.445 0.497
Houston Tennessee -380 320 0.523 0.591 0.549
Arizona Detroit 110 -130 0.53 0.615 0.497
TB NO 140 -160 0.324 0.635 0.371
Oakland Jacksonville -245 205 0.79 0.772 0.742
Giants Denver 170 -200 0.362 0.615 0.387
Seattle SF -150 130 0.396 0.615 0.437
Cincy Pittsburgh -250 210 0.719 0.615 0.659

Finally we have the over/under, which the models suck at.  But I’ll keep listing them for thoroughness.  Again you have home and away, the over/under, and the predicted total from each model.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
NE Jets 43 38.26 41.66 39.14
Atlanta StL 46.5 41.43 42.23 42.24
Buffalo Carolina 44 37.49 42.15 38.88
Chicago Minnesota 41.5 45.85 42.23 45.37
GB Washington 50.5 50.35 42.15 48.75
Indy Miami 43 40.62 42.08 41.69
KC Dallas 45.5 38.9 42.49 40.32
Philly SD 54 50.29 42.32 49.09
Baltimore Cleveland 44 42.76 42.15 41.98
Houston Tennessee 43 42.8 42.13 43.14
Arizona Detroit 48.5 44.78 42.25 44.52
TB NO 47.5 42.73 42.15 43.18
Oakland Jacksonville 39.5 36.62 41.96 38.31
Giants Denver 55 59.16 42.81 54.93
Seattle SF 44 50.62 42.54 49.89
Cincy Pittsburgh 41 37.37 41.01 38.25

There it is!  Enjoy the football.  I’m off to enjoy the weather before the games tonight; it’s been brutal in St. Louis recently but the temperatures have taken a turn for the awesome this weekend.

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