NFL Week 4

The week is off to a poor start with the 49ers looking a little more 49ers-like and the Rams looking perfectly Rams-like.  It didn’t look like it was going to be that way to start.  I was ready to talk about how the 49ers were running effectively but throwing the ball more than they needed to, but then Kaepernick started throwing well and they were pretty effective at everything.  On the other side, the Rams were throwing well but running too often; they ended up not running much (and be crummy at it) and not throwing so well either.  Early in the game the 49ers were getting good pressure but Bradford was completing some throws anyway; eventually the rush got to him and San Fran’s secondary tightened up a bit.  I don’t think anyone had high expectations for the Rams before the game, so it’s a bit unclear what this means for the 49ers exactly.  But at least they didn’t lose, so fans can start hoping that the season is going to turn around.

As I noted in that Thursday post, the models all fit with Minnesota as the home team even though the game is in London.  On top of that, they’ll have Matt Flynn under center instead of Christian Ponder.  That may or may not be a big deal, but put together you may not want to take the predictions for that game too seriously.  But, all three models like the Vikes to win by 3 or 4 and the Steelers are favored by a field goal.  That’s quite a disparity, so maybe Minnesota has something going for them anyway.  Here are the spread picks:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
StL SF 3 -105 0.84 2.24 1.71
Buffalo Baltimore 3 -110 -1.48 1.04 -0.35
Cleveland Cincy 3 -100 -0.81 2.67 0.12
Detroit Chicago -3 -105 3.78 2.51 3.72
KC Giants -4 -110 12.67 5.26 10.93
Minnesota Pittsburgh 3 -120 4.59 3.16 4.23
TB Arizona -2.5 -110 0.27 2.09 1
Jacksonville Indy 7.5 -110 -13.28 -2.58 -10.15
Houston Seattle 2 -110 -8.83 -3.03 -5.82
Tennessee Jets -3.5 -105 0.99 3.5 2.09
Denver Philly -11 -110 10.37 4.51 8.65
Oakland Washington 3.5 -110 5.51 5.26 4.93
SD Dallas 2 -110 1.28 1.7 2.04
Atlanta NE -2 -110 0.83 2.25 1.93
NO Miami -6.5 -110 6.3 3.16 5.71

It looks like there should be a few entertaining games this weekend, but Broncos-Eagles has to be toward the top.  Denver is favored to win easily, but can they set the over/under high enough?  If you combine the total with the spread to pick a final score (not a good idea, but you can do it for fun), it should end up something like 35-24.  That would be the lowest point output by the Broncos so far this year.  Here are the spread picks with Bill Simmons’ numbers.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
StL SF 3.5 StL StL StL StL
Buffalo Baltimore 3 Baltimore Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
Cleveland Cincy 4.5 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
Detroit Chicago -2.5 Detroit Detroit Detroit Detroit
KC Giants -5 KC KC KC KC
Minnesota Pittsburgh 3 Pittsburgh Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
TB Arizona -2.5 TB Arizona Arizona Arizona
Jacksonville Indy 9.5 Jacksonville Indy Jacksonville Indy
Houston Seattle 3 Seattle Seattle Seattle Seattle
Tennessee Jets -4 Tennessee Jets Jets Jets
Denver Philly -11.5 Denver Philly Philly Philly
Oakland Washington 3.5 Washington Oakland Oakland Oakland
SD Dallas 2.5 SD SD SD SD
Atlanta NE -2.5 Atlanta NE NE NE
NO Miami -7 NO Miami Miami Miami

Speaking of Bill, he’s had a rough start to the season.  It seems like it’s been rough all over.  Dave Tuley has a column that I like on ESPN Insider, and he notes how the SuperContest picks are not doing especially well.  The consensus picks so far are only at 14% and the average record overall is under 40%.  Compared to that, the models are doing well.  If things start to even out and the model keeps its relative performance, the models will actually do well.  That would be nice.  But here’s something doing pretty well so far: the moneyline picks.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
StL SF 165 -175 0.534 0.617 0.581
Buffalo Baltimore 135 -155 0.486 0.607 0.546
Cleveland Cincy 150 -170 0.488 0.615 0.547
Detroit Chicago -150 130 0.608 0.609 0.582
KC Giants -200 170 0.83 0.609 0.692
Minnesota Pittsburgh 120 -140 0.675 0.649 0.608
TB Arizona -135 115 0.506 0.61 0.555
Jacksonville Indy 325 -400 0.149 0.609 0.404
Houston Seattle 105 -125 0.232 0.56 0.471
Tennessee Jets -185 160 0.556 0.609 0.592
Denver Philly -550 425 0.743 0.624 0.638
Oakland Washington 150 -170 0.638 0.609 0.593
SD Dallas 105 -125 0.545 0.608 0.566
Atlanta NE -125 105 0.564 0.829 0.582
NO Miami -280 240 0.704 0.627 0.616

To wrap up, here are some other games that I think are potentially interesting: the Monday night undefeated game is obviously of interest, but the Saints are strong favorites over the Dolphins.  The Sunday night Falcons/Pats game sounds good, and the spread and models agree it should be close, but I’m curious.  I wonder how the Patriots’ pass game is going to look.  Houston/Seattle is a test for the Texans, and the spread has it close, but Luigi likes the Seahawks as a big favorite.  If they blow it out, Houston is going to face a lot of questions.  And finishing with my Lions, they host Chicago in an important NFC North game.  I think most people have the Lions as roughly home field favorites; I’ll be happy enough it that happens.  Just like I’ll be happy enough if the over/under picks turn out reasonably.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
StL SF 43 45.07 43.89 44.8
Buffalo Baltimore 44.5 44.72 43.21 44.44
Cleveland Cincy 42.5 42.84 41.9 43.04
Detroit Chicago 47.5 49.06 44.23 48.13
KC Giants 44 44.7 44.11 44.68
Minnesota Pittsburgh 41.5 43.32 42.42 43.11
TB Arizona 40 39.03 44.11 39.95
Jacksonville Indy 42.5 41.59 39.55 42.12
Houston Seattle 41.5 45.28 42.74 45.08
Tennessee Jets 40.5 41.21 43.67 41.85
Denver Philly 58.5 55.58 44.47 53.77
Oakland Washington 44 44.16 40.85 44.63
SD Dallas 46.5 47.27 42.78 46.63
Atlanta NE 49 41.51 40.8 42.18
NO Miami 48 43.72 41.98 44.09
Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s