NFL Week 4 Round-Up and Rankings

You’ve probably already caught most of the storylines from the weekend, considering that by the time you read this it’ll be appropriate to watch one of the best commercials on TV right now.  The Broncos are rolling, the Seahawks are mentally tough (and/or the Texans are also-rans), the Pats haven’t gone away yet, the Giants and Steelers have, etc.  But let’s not forget the most important things:  the Lions won and we have to see how the models did.  And there are rankings!

I’ll start with the Hilton SuperContest picks.  This past week Luigi had the Raiders, Chiefs, Vikings, Seahawks, and Colts, for an impressive 4-1 record.  The Raiders could have reasonably even made it 5-0 if they had anyone left to play behind the offensive line.  But if it was that easy, everyone would be doing it, right?  Since I usually follow Luigi, that would put my SuperContest ‘entry’ at 11-8-1 for 11.5 points.  That’s currently out of the top 30 pay spots, but in striking distance and well above average (which I have at about 8.5 points).  Yoshi 1 also went 2-3, getting the Vikes and Browns, for a total of 9-10-1, and Yoshi 2 went 3-2 for a total of 10-9-1.

How about the predictions as a whole?  In all games, Luigi was 10-5, but would have passed on two games and gone 9-4 on the rest.  That gives Luigi a two week total of 27-19-1/24-16-1.  Yoshi 1 was 8-7/6-5 for a total of 24-22-1/20-17-1, and Yoshi 2 was 10-5/8-4 for a total of 24-22-1/20-17-1.  The consensus picks, where all three models agree, are 15-11-1 through three weeks of picks.

Using his lines for the past weekend, Bill went 8-6-1 (the Seahawks pushed on his number).  Luigi and Yoshi 2 went 9-5-1 and Yoshi 1 went 8-6-1.  That makes the two week counts Bill 21-22-4, Luigi 26-17-4, Yoshi 1 25-18-4, and Yoshi 2 24-19-4.  After three weeks I have five games in hand, which is a pretty good place to be.

Luigi was 9-6 on moneyline bets for a positive week, with no single big win but a number of small ones.  The Yoshis were not so fortunate, with Yoshi 1 doing very poorly and Yoshi 2 skipping some games.  Both are in the hole at this point.

How about some rankings?

NFL 2013 week 4 rankingsThe undefeateds are dominating the top of the list, with the exception of the Patriots at 9th.  While the last two games have been a bit more convincing, New England still doesn’t have very good stats in terms of passing efficiency and their rushing efficiency is only average.  They also simply have played especially good teams yet.  A couple of surprising teams towards the top are Carolina and Green Bay, both 1-2.  But the Packers pass and run very well, and Carolina’s defense has been solid; we’ll have to see if their records move up to Luigi’s estimation or if it’s all a terrible mistake.  At the other end of the list we have sad sacks Jacksonville, NY Giants, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay.  Is anything worse than what’s happening with the Bucs right now?  It sounds like Freeman made some mistakes, but nothing so bad he deserves this.  Some teams have had guys involved in murders or drunk driving who had it way better.

Last week the season predictions said the Broncos may not end up with the best record.  That has tightened up a bit.

NFL 2013 week 4 season Luigi is now a little more bullish on Denver than it was, and less impressed with Seattle.  The close win over Houston brought things down a bit, as it probably should.  Perhaps more interesting is that it also pegs the Chiefs for 10 wins.  We could have quite a race in the AFC West.  In contrast, the Colts, Saints, and Seahawks may already be on track for easy division titles.  We’ll see if it comes to pass, but Luigi has all four teams in the AFC North coming in at 8-8 or worse, and Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay all finishing at 9 wins with Minnesota all the way back at 7 or 8.  Could be an interesting season, or some team could fall apart in terrific fashion, crushing the hopes of its fan base.

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