NFL Week 5

Like last week, the week is off to a poor start with the Browns beating (and covering the spread) against the Bills.  It was an odd game though, with the Bills losing their starting QB to injury, causing their back-up (who might have been the starter at one point) to come in.  The Browns also lost their starting QB to injury, causing their back-up (who was the previous starter) to come in.  As it turns out, the Browns’ previous-starter-turned-back-up was better than the Bills’ possible-starter-turned-back-up, and a close game ended up a 13 point win after Tuel threw a pick-six in the waning minutes.  So we missed that one, although Bill Simmons got it via his Ewing theory.

As a side note, I have a busy weekend ahead of me so I got all the lines and whatnot and wrote most of the post on Friday night.  So things may have changed in the meantime.

I think the Packers-Lions spread is a little high.  As a Lions fan, I would not be shocked at all if Green Bay just went crazy.  But the Lions have been doing pretty well, and isn’t there always the chance that Suh does something dirty and concusses Rodgers?  Of course, the last time Rodgers was out the Lions also gave up like 5000 yards to Matt Flynn, who has yet to donate a dime to Detroit for helping to trick the Seahawks and Raiders into paying him.  I’ll remain optimistic about the Lions, and at least all three models think they’ll cover.  Here are the rest of the spread picks:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Cleveland Buffalo -4 -110 1.72 4.52 2.05
Chicago NO 0 -110 -1.46 0.55 -1.38
Cincy NE 0 -110 -1.23 2.65 -0.68
GB Detroit -7 -110 3.63 3.62 3.58
Tennessee KC 2.5 -105 -2.03 3.45 -1.04
Indy Seattle 2.5 -105 1.39 9.72 2.31
StL Jacksonville -11 -110 4.47 3.55 4.66
Miami Baltimore -2.5 -115 2.91 4.63 2.74
Giants Philly -1 -110 -3.18 -4.3 -2.68
Arizona Carolina 1.5 -110 -4.44 -2.1 -2.93
Dallas Denver 7 -105 -2.46 2.56 -2.26
Oakland SD 4.5 -110 -0.69 1.54 -0.26
SF Houston -6 -110 0.42 -0.49 1.16
Atlanta Jets -9.5 -110 2.92 6.41 3.92

Simmons has already resorted to cheating; his picks for the week said he was 9-6 in week 4.  I have him at 8-6-1, and I like my chances better because his Seattle-Houston spread was definitely a push.  Here are the spread picks with Bill Simmons’ numbers.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Cleveland Buffalo -4 Cleveland Buffalo Cleveland Buffalo
Chicago NO 1.5 NO Chicago Chicago Chicago
Cincy NE 1 NE NE Cincy Cincy
GB Detroit -7 GB Detroit Detroit Detroit
Tennessee KC 3 KC Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
Indy Seattle 3 Indy Indy Indy Indy
StL Jacksonville -11.5 Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville
Miami Baltimore -3 Miami Baltimore Miami Baltimore
Giants Philly -1.5 Giants Philly Philly Philly
Arizona Carolina 2.5 Carolina Carolina Arizona Carolina
Dallas Denver 9 Dallas Dallas Dallas Dallas
Oakland SD 5 Oakland Oakland Oakland Oakland
SF Houston -6 SF Houston Houston Houston
Atlanta Jets -10 Jets Jets Jets Jets

Kind of interestingly, we have two games with a pick ’em spread for the week: Chicago-New Orleans and Cincy-New England.  That means you can basically take whoever you think will win.  But with the vig on the bets, you’d like to have some wiggle room before you go either way.  Fittingly, the models have those two games as close too.  And with that, the moneyline picks.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Cleveland Buffalo -185 170 0.554 0.541 0.568
Chicago NO -110 -110 0.467 0.544 0.51
Cincy NE -110 -110 0.458 0.544 0.52
GB Detroit -330 270 0.66 0.544 0.596
Tennessee KC 115 -135 0.46 0.544 0.531
Indy Seattle 125 -145 0.564 0.544 0.588
StL Jacksonville -550 425 0.679 0.538 0.633
Miami Baltimore -145 125 0.638 0.544 0.583
Giants Philly -120 -100 0.327 0.214 0.464
Arizona Carolina -100 -120 0.403 0.532 0.505
Dallas Denver 270 -330 0.458 0.532 0.484
Oakland SD 180 -220 0.423 0.544 0.514
SF Houston -260 200 0.545 0.544 0.565
Atlanta Jets -460 365 0.584 0.648 0.617

With the wedding on Sunday, I don’t think I’ll see any of the games.  But the ones I’ll miss the most (besides the Lions): Bears-Saints, Colts-Seahawks, Cowboys-Broncos, and 49ers-Texans.  There’s some chance we’ll be out in time for some of Raiders-Chargers since they’ll be starting ridiculously late, and I should be able to watch on Monday night.  As with most people, I’ll be rooting for lots of points in any given game.  The models are usually a little more reasonable, and here are their picks:

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Cleveland Buffalo 41 39.39 38.5 40.51
Chicago NO 48.5 47.09 36.33 46.77
Cincy NE 45 42.67 33.98 43.22
GB Detroit 53.5 51.39 39.07 49.62
Tennessee KC 38.5 41.37 37.66 42.79
Indy Seattle 44 43.39 29.82 44.09
StL Jacksonville 41 41.98 39.86 41.89
Miami Baltimore 43.5 42.34 38.76 42.67
Giants Philly 53 49.13 40.58 47.76
Arizona Carolina 42 37.87 32.75 39.65
Dallas Denver 56.5 53.81 40.03 51.78
Oakland SD 45 47.79 40.09 47.09
SF Houston 41.5 42.91 35.11 43.44
Atlanta Jets 43.5 45.44 40.14 45.01
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