Like last week, the week is off to a poor start with the Browns beating (and covering the spread) against the Bills. It was an odd game though, with the Bills losing their starting QB to injury, causing their back-up (who might have been the starter at one point) to come in. The Browns also lost their starting QB to injury, causing their back-up (who was the previous starter) to come in. As it turns out, the Browns’ previous-starter-turned-back-up was better than the Bills’ possible-starter-turned-back-up, and a close game ended up a 13 point win after Tuel threw a pick-six in the waning minutes. So we missed that one, although Bill Simmons got it via his Ewing theory.
As a side note, I have a busy weekend ahead of me so I got all the lines and whatnot and wrote most of the post on Friday night. So things may have changed in the meantime.
I think the Packers-Lions spread is a little high. As a Lions fan, I would not be shocked at all if Green Bay just went crazy. But the Lions have been doing pretty well, and isn’t there always the chance that Suh does something dirty and concusses Rodgers? Of course, the last time Rodgers was out the Lions also gave up like 5000 yards to Matt Flynn, who has yet to donate a dime to Detroit for helping to trick the Seahawks and Raiders into paying him. I’ll remain optimistic about the Lions, and at least all three models think they’ll cover. Here are the rest of the spread picks:
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Simmons has already resorted to cheating; his picks for the week said he was 9-6 in week 4. I have him at 8-6-1, and I like my chances better because his Seattle-Houston spread was definitely a push. Here are the spread picks with Bill Simmons’ numbers.
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Kind of interestingly, we have two games with a pick ’em spread for the week: Chicago-New Orleans and Cincy-New England. That means you can basically take whoever you think will win. But with the vig on the bets, you’d like to have some wiggle room before you go either way. Fittingly, the models have those two games as close too. And with that, the moneyline picks.
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With the wedding on Sunday, I don’t think I’ll see any of the games. But the ones I’ll miss the most (besides the Lions): Bears-Saints, Colts-Seahawks, Cowboys-Broncos, and 49ers-Texans. There’s some chance we’ll be out in time for some of Raiders-Chargers since they’ll be starting ridiculously late, and I should be able to watch on Monday night. As with most people, I’ll be rooting for lots of points in any given game. The models are usually a little more reasonable, and here are their picks:
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