NFL Week 6

It’s another week another wedding for me, and since I’m on the road that means you get to see the picks early again.  Just a few comments, short and sweet, and big tables.

The Bears already blew my first pick of the week (at least for Luigi and Yoshi 2).  They had the ball at the end with a chance for an insurance score to cover, but they were able to run the clock out instead.  But at least I felt right in my assessment of the game – the Giants needed Eli to hold on to the ball, and he could not.  Here are the rest of the spread picks:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Chicago Giants -7.5 -110 11.83 4.49 10.11
Buffalo Cincy 6.5 -110 0.97 3.51 1.49
Cleveland Detroit 3 -120 2.45 3.41 2.14
KC Oakland -8 -110 8.62 3.98 7.14
Minnesota Carolina -2.5 -110 1.51 3.98 2.05
Jets Pittsburgh -2 -110 7.71 4.28 6.32
TB Philly 3 -125 -1.98 3.54 -2.02
Baltimore GB 3 -120 0.6 2.83 0.36
Houston StL -7.5 -100 2.19 3.73 2.13
Denver Jacksonville -26.5 -110 21.2 4.01 17.56
Seattle Tennessee -13 -110 6.71 3.48 5.34
NE NO -2.5 -110 -2.27 2.42 -1.61
SF Arizona -10.5 -110 4.17 3.55 4.4
Dallas Washington -5.5 -110 7.52 3.9 6.14
SD Indy 1.5 -110 0.37 3.55 0.92

Here are Bill Simmons’ lines as usual.  I think the saddest one is everyone agrees that the Browns will cover against the Lions.  Man, I hope that doesn’t happen.  Well, they can cover and lose.  I would be able to live with that.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Chicago Giants -7.5 Chicago Chicago Giants Chicago
Buffalo Cincy 8 Cincy Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
Cleveland Detroit 3 Clevaland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
KC Oakland -8 KC KC Oakland Oakland
Minnesota Carolina -2.5 Minnesota Carolina Minnesota Carolina
Jets Pittsburgh -2 Jets Jets Jets Jets
TB Philly 2 Philly TB TB Philly
Baltimore GB 3 GB Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore
Houston StL -7.5 StL StL StL StL
Denver Jacksonville -27 Denver Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville
Seattle Tennessee -13.5 Seattle Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
NE NO -1.5 NE NO NE NO
SF Arizona -10.5 Arizona Arizona Arizona Arizona
Dallas Washington -6 Dallas Dallas Washington Dallas
SD Indy 2.5 SD SD SD SD

A couple of games where caveats seem reasonable: The Vikings, Eagles, and Titans have uncertain/changed QB situations.  Always worth noting.  If the Lions are without Calvin Johnson again, that isn’t going to help.  If Adrian Peterson misses the game after the tragedy with his son, the Vikings will have additional uncertainty.  Atlanta’s passing game is going to be in rough shape, but particularly if Roddy White is out or still beat up.  I’m sure there are others, but you get the point: we’re getting to the part of the season where team stats are becoming reliable, but they aren’t as reliable if people are injured or switching in and out.  So use your best judgment with these moneyline picks.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Chicago Giants -345 315 0.84 0.854 0.684
Buffalo Cincy 245 -275 0.537 0.427 0.562
Cleveland Detroit 125 -145 0.601 0.322 0.564
KC Oakland -370 310 0.742 0.595 0.629
Minnesota Carolina -130 110 0.571 0.714 0.576
Jets Pittsburgh -125 105 0.741 0.743 0.618
TB Philly 125 -145 0.368 0.619 0.47
Baltimore GB 125 -145 0.453 0.506 0.513
Houston StL -330 270 0.547 0.728 0.555
Denver Jacksonville -7000 3000 0.943 0.742 0.768
Seattle Tennessee -750 525 0.684 0.425 0.594
NE NO -130 110 0.443 0.47 0.51
SF Arizona -525 415 0.643 0.44 0.613
Dallas Washington -240 200 0.72 0.847 0.612
SD Indy -100 -120 0.49 0.455 0.54

I don’t have too much left to go with the over/under picks.  Games I’ll miss watching: the Lions (obviously), Baltimore-Green Bay (I’m curious why the models think Baltimore has a chance), Denver-Jacksonville (morbid curiosity), and Pats-Saints.  With any luck I’ll see at least parts of Sunday and Monday nights’ games.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Chicago Giants 46.5 47.2 40.98 46.43
Buffalo Cincy 41.5 42.46 42.71 42.61
Cleveland Detroit 44 46.13 43.66 45.86
KC Oakland 40.5 41.73 44.51 43.16
Minnesota Carolina 44 42.29 45.27 42.72
Jets Pittsburgh 41 42.57 40.52 43.05
TB Philly 45.5 41.52 43.98 42.54
Baltimore GB 48.5 47.61 47.05 47.07
Houston StL 42 43.11 42.92 43.19
Denver Jacksonville 53 49.77 44.75 48.24
Seattle Tennessee 40.5 45.66 45.09 45.79
NE NO 50.5 42.95 45.83 43.83
SF Arizona 41 41.83 41.82 42.53
Dallas Washington 52 49.34 44.8 48.51
SD Indy 50 48.88 47.66 48.27
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