NFL Week 7

The Cardinals were driving the field for a push-inducing touchdown, keeping my hopes afloat for the Thursday night pick, but then in typical Arizona fashion threw the ball away on fourth down to end the game.  I guess it isn’t surprising, but kind of disappointing all the same.

In unprecedented news, I will probably miss the Sunday afternoon games for a third straight week because I have family in town.  But I’ll try to pick out a couple games to say something potentially smart about.

The Lions will actually be on local TV this weekend, which makes it an extra shame that I won’t be hanging out on the couch.  Both Detroit and Cincinnati are 4-2 and neither has been particularly impressive.  Detroit lost to the Packers and looked bad doing it without Calvin Johnson, and also dropped a game in Arizona.  Their wins have all been convincing, but the most impressive was probably just Chicago.  The Bengals lost to both Chicago and Cleveland (giving Detroit the leg up in the ‘same game’ column), but has a close win over the Packers and the ugly win over the Patriots.  So who knows with these two?  You have to assume the Lions have a shot in any game Megatron plays, but you probably thought that last year too.  Let’s see what the models say about the spread picks:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Arizona Seattle 5 -110 -1.4 1.23 -0.91
Atlanta TB -6 -110 5.24 2.67 5.64
Detroit Cincy -2.5 -110 4.09 2.42 4.12
KC Houston -6 -110 8.66 3.09 7.16
Miami Buffalo -7 -110 3.76 4.17 3.63
Jets NE 3.5 -110 -0.82 1.78 0.1
Philly Dallas -2.5 -120 1.9 2.08 3
Washington Chicago 1 -110 -1.6 1.63 -0.48
Carolina StL -7 -110 6.93 0.76 5.27
Jacksonville SD 7 -100 -8.66 -2.3 -6.46
Tennessee SF 3 -110 0.4 0.94 0.6
GB Cleveland -9.5 -110 5.91 3.98 5.88
Pittsburgh Baltimore -2.5 -110 0.16 0.04 1.07
Indy Denver 6 -110 -0.48 2 -0.33
Giants Minnesota -3.5 -100 -1.61 1.98 -0.66

Bill Simmons bailed on his picks this weekend and snuck them into an article about what NBA teams he thinks will be the most fun to watch on League Pass this year.  You would think he’s reached his limits as a purveyor of ridiculous opinion rankings, but he keeps reaching higher and I keep reading it.  He never made a Thursday pick as far as I can tell (presumably he was busy deciding if he would rather watch the Bucks or the Hornets on any given night), but he listed himself as 0-1 so I gave him the Hilton line and figured he picked the Cardinals.  The rest of those picks are below:

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Arizona Seattle 5 Arizona Arizona Arizona Arizona
Atlanta TB -7 TB TB TB TB
Detroit Cincy -3 Detroit Detroit Cincy Detroit
KC Houston -6.5 KC KC Houston KC
Miami Buffalo -7.5 Miami Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo
Jets NE 4 NE Jets Jets Jets
Philly Dallas -2.5 Philly Dallas Dallas Philly
Washington Chicago 1 Chicago Chicago Washington Washington
Carolina StL -6.5 Carolina Carolina StL StL
Jacksonville SD 8 Jacksonville SD Jacksonville Jacksonville
Tennessee SF 4.5 Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
GB Cleveland -10 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
Pittsburgh Baltimore -1.5 Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore
Indy Denver 7 Indy Indy Indy Indy
Giants Minnesota -3.5 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota

The closest game this weekend according to the spread is probably Washington-Chicago, which started with the Redskins as a small favorite but has swung to the Bears as a small favorite.  The game is in DC, so I understand Washington getting some credit, but otherwise I can’t see why they would be favorites.  Proving my gut to be useless once again, the models also see this as a close game, but lean towards the Bears.  Presumably it’ll be a shootout, since Washington can’t stop anyone, but the expected total isn’t especially high.  Here are the moneyline picks:

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Arizona Seattle 190 -220 0.399 0.598 0.445
Atlanta TB -290 245 0.677 0.598 0.674
Detroit Cincy -140 120 0.63 0.598 0.621
KC Houston -265 225 0.712 0.598 0.671
Miami Buffalo -380 315 0.633 0.633 0.606
Jets NE 165 -190 0.471 0.598 0.505
Philly Dallas -145 125 0.591 0.598 0.603
Washington Chicago -105 -115 0.473 0.598 0.504
Carolina StL -290 245 0.71 0.598 0.639
Jacksonville SD 275 -335 0.232 0.598 0.327
Tennessee SF 145 -165 0.515 0.846 0.522
GB Cleveland -450 360 0.702 0.598 0.674
Pittsburgh Baltimore -140 120 0.541 0.598 0.556
Indy Denver 220 -260 0.454 0.598 0.462
Giants Minnesota -185 160 0.431 0.6 0.478

Rounding things out with the over/under picks, the highest scoring game should be either Colts-Broncos or Eagles-Cowboys.  You could really pick any game the Broncos play in, as they’re good for 30 points on their own easy, but you can also see the appeal of Philly-Dallas.  The Eagles’ offense has been as good as advertised while their defense has been terrible, and the Cowboys have shown that they can put up points too.  Their lowest output was 16 against the Chiefs and their stingy defense, and they’ve broken 30 in four of their six games.  So this could be a good one.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Arizona Seattle 41 43.59 46.77 43.76
Atlanta TB 43 44.56 47.03 44.63
Detroit Cincy 47 45.64 47.56 45.31
KC Houston 39.5 42.38 46.9 42.96
Miami Buffalo 42.5 43.6 46.2 43.47
Jets NE 43.5 41.01 45.17 41.74
Philly Dallas 54.5 52.83 48.47 51.27
Washington Chicago 50 46.14 47.83 46.01
Carolina StL 42 43.06 46.31 43.47
Jacksonville SD 45.5 46.74 46.23 46.16
Tennessee SF 41 42.74 45.69 43.29
GB Cleveland 45 44.18 46.44 44.37
Pittsburgh Baltimore 41 44.79 46.03 44.61
Indy Denver 56.5 51.23 47.54 50.14
Giants Minnesota 47 47.26 47.25 46.35
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