This week had three unusual events: The Broncos lost (for the first time this season), the Giants won (for the first time this season), and I got to watch football when I didn’t think I would! Even with visitors, we needed to take a break and so I got to watch the end of the Michigan game (which, despite the win, did not go as planned) and the second half of the Lions game (which also did not go as planned). Throw in Thursday and Monday night, although that wasn’t such great shakes, and Sunday night in the background, and it was pretty close to a full football weekend. That being said, I’m going to just go through the model performance and the rankings and put up a separate post shortly.
I’ll start with the Hilton SuperContest picks. This past week Luigi had the Bills, Titans, Colts, Vikings, and Browns for a 2-3 record. There were two outright wins, which is pretty good for picking underdogs, but the three losses weren’t particularly close. That puts my SuperContest ‘entry’ at 20-14-1 for 20.5 points. The below-average week dropped me in the standings a bit, but one extra win would jump right back to the money. Yoshi 1 went 2-3 (getting the Jets instead of Bills and missing on Arizona and St. Louis) for a total of 17-17-1, and Yoshi 2 went 2-3 (same picks as Luigi) for a total of 19-15-1. Just to update on how the field is doing in general, the average score for players who made a pick this week is just over 15.5 and the leader has 25.5. That’s out of a top possible score of 35. So the average entry is under 50%, which is impressive in a way. All three of the models are thus in the top half.
It was a rough week for the modes. In all games, Luigi was 5-10, but would have passed on four games and gone 4-7 on the rest. That gives Luigi a total of 47-43-1/41-35-1. Yoshi 1 was 7-8/5-8 for a total of 45-45-1/38-37-1, and Yoshi 2 was 4-11/3-8 for a total of 42-48-1/35-39-1. The consensus picks, where all three models agree, were 3-5 for a 29-22-1 total.
Fitting with the rough week, Bill Simmons went 2-13. The only games he picked correctly were Carolina and St. Louis. Luigi went 6-9, Yoshi 1 went 7-8, and Yoshi 2 went 4-11. That makes the counts Bill 38-49-4, Luigi 47-40-4, Yoshi 1 48-39-4, and Yoshi 2 43-44-4.
Luigi was 3-7 on moneyline bets to finish dead even. The Yoshis were not so fortunate.
Denver’s loss didn’t hurt them too much in terms of rankings. Kansas City is the only team with a defense rating above -1, which is kind of a meaningless number but the fact that KC is as far under it as the Saints are above it should say something. And despite their first win, the Giants are still second to last. Yeah, they won and broke the 20 point barrier, but remember that they got almost half their points after kick return fumbles. They still had an atrocious game.