NFL Week 9

If you’re expecting to see any more overtime victories by safety this weekend, I wouldn’t hold my breath.  We were looking forward to a close game, but it’s probably more accurate to say that the Bengals gave it away.  Dalton threw three interceptions, which he had only done three times before.  Even if you think Dalton might be prone to throwing picks, the timing wasn’t so great.  He had one that was returned 94 yards for a touchdown, which is at least a ten-point swing right there.  He also threw one with less than 30 seconds before half time, which the Dolphins turned around into a quick field goal.  The Bengals couldn’t have just run the clock out, since Miami had all its timeouts, but if they had sprinkled a run in there there might not have been enough time for the field goal (and perhaps the interception wouldn’t have happened).  But, the game turned out the way it did, and so Miami stays in the playoff hunt while the Bengals fail to put a real damper on the AFC North race. 

There are a couple of predicted-to-be-close games this week.  Washington-San Diego is one; I believe the SuperContest line was Chargers -1 but my SBR line for today is Chargers +1.  Yoshi 1 has Washington as a tiny favorite, but Luigi and Yoshi 2 think the Chargers are solid favorites.  The two are close in terms of record, but the Chargers have a much better margin of victory; Washington is averaging a loss by 8 points while San Diego is averaging a 3.5 point win.  So I would lean towards the Chargers, but obviously Washington is capable of putting up some points.  Cleveland and Baltimore is another; if the Ravens can win, they keep the AFC North at least a little interesting.  They are the favorite, but only by 1.5 points.  The models have it as a pretty close game as well.  The Ravens won an ugly one in Baltimore back in week 2, and I think they’re the better team, but Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep any game interesting and Jason Campbell is obviously not a downgrade from who has suited up for the Browns before.  If I had to guess, I would go with Baltimore but it looks like a toss-up.  Here are all the spread picks:

home away Spread Odds Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Cincy 2.5 -110 -2.63 -2.98 -1.71
Buffalo KC 3.5 -110 -4.81 -3.31 -3.62
Dallas Minnesota -9.5 -110 9.62 4.22 8.2
StL Tennessee 3 -115 0.41 -0.69 0.86
Jets NO 6 -110 -6.36 -3.25 -5.09
Washington SD -1 -110 -4.22 0.2 -3.22
Carolina Atlanta -7 -120 7.39 2.06 5.95
Oakland Philly -2 -110 1.06 2.02 0.98
Seattle TB -14.5 -110 10.61 6.18 8.9
Cleveland Baltimore 1.5 -110 -0.25 -0.94 0.35
NE Pittsburgh -6.5 -110 4.72 0.43 4.03
Houston Indy 2 -110 -4.63 -3.81 -3.15
GB Chicago -10.5 -110 6.11 0.92 5.73

Here are Bill Simmons’ picks.  If you haven’t seen it already, I recommend checking out the article just for the excellent Andy Reid gif.  Otherwise you can check out all the links he has to other Grantland stuff, since the site isn’t self-referential enough already.

home away Simmons Spread Simmons Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Cincy 3 Miami Miami Miami Miami
Buffalo KC 4 KC KC Buffalo Buffalo
Dallas Minnesota -10.5 Dallas Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
StL Tennessee 3 Tennessee StL StL StL
Jets NO 7 NO Jets Jets Jets
Washington SD 1.5 SD SD Washington SD
Carolina Atlanta -8 Carolina Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta
Oakland Philly -3 Oakland Philly Philly Philly
Seattle TB -16 Seattle TB TB TB
Cleveland Baltimore 3 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
NE Pittsburgh -7 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh
Houston Indy 3 Houston Indy Indy Indy
GB Chicago -11 Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago

There are three predicted big winners: Dallas over Minnesota, Seattle over Tampa, and Green Bay over Chicago.  Luigi has Cowboys and Vikings as about right, and I mentioned on Thursday that your opinion on Packers-Bears depends on how much of an upgrade you think Cutler is over McCown.  Seattle is definitely a favorite over Tampa, but the models think maybe a little too much.  That being said, they’re still 80% plus to win.  I hope you don’t get stuck with any of those games, although obviously we’ll all get the NFC North match on Monday night.  Here are the rest of the moneyline predictions.

home away Home Line Away Line Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Cincy 145 -155 0.447 0.437 0.482
Buffalo KC 160 -185 0.367 0.484 0.416
Dallas Minnesota -450 360 0.792 0.763 0.719
StL Tennessee 130 -150 0.542 0.5 0.548
Jets NO 210 -250 0.3 0.344 0.369
Washington SD -115 -105 0.351 0.475 0.417
Carolina Atlanta -340 280 0.736 0.573 0.664
Oakland Philly -125 105 0.521 0.508 0.526
Seattle TB -1250 800 0.813 0.925 0.737
Cleveland Baltimore -100 -120 0.519 0.633 0.533
NE Pittsburgh -290 245 0.673 0.508 0.631
Houston Indy 105 -125 0.354 0.438 0.421
GB Chicago -500 400 0.692 0.567 0.658

Finally we get to the ‘entertaining’ games, which are the ones with the highest predicted score.  There are only two set to break the 50 mark, which are Packers-Bears and Washington-San Diego.  In terms of the over/under, only one other game is even over 46, and that’s Dallas-Minnesota.  So it might be kind of a boring week, but you never know.  If you aren’t a big fan of defense/incompetency though, I would stay away from watching our two sub-40 games for the week, Buffalo-KC and Rams-Titans.  Maybe one of those four will surprise us by breaking 20.

home away Over/Under Luigi Yoshi 1 Yoshi 2
Miami Cincy 43 44.36 44.42 44.39
Buffalo KC 39.5 43.09 44.42 43.41
Dallas Minnesota 47.5 48.1 44.42 47.33
StL Tennessee 39.5 44.36 44.42 44.34
Jets NO 45.5 45.87 44.42 45.6
Washington SD 51 47.46 44.48 46.94
Carolina Atlanta 44.5 43.39 44.42 43.8
Oakland Philly 44.5 41.14 44.42 42.17
Seattle TB 40.5 40.88 44.42 41.74
Cleveland Baltimore 41.5 42.54 44.42 42.91
NE Pittsburgh 44 41.48 44.42 42.26
Houston Indy 44 45.23 44.42 45.39
GB Chicago 50 52.61 44.42 51.01
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