I was at a conference last week and left too early for there to be any of my usual comparisons available – no Simmons, not even the SuperContest numbers were posted yet. So this post is the predictions for the now past games and the results all together (I’m writing this as the Pats and Panthers go at it, so I can post as soon as the game ends). I’ll try to do something a little less dry before Thursday, like update the playoff situation.
The spread picks:
|home||away||Spread||Odds||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2|
In all games Luigi was 7-6-2 (our first two push week thanks to Colts-Titans and Saints-49ers), but would have passed on three games and gone 5-5-2 on the rest. That gives Luigi a total of 72-70-4/57-53-3. Yoshi 1 was 3-10-2/3-10-2 (making a pick in every game) for a total of 63-79-4/53-66-4, and Yoshi 2 was 7-6-2/5-4-2 for a total of 69-73-4/55-60-3. The consensus picks, where all three models agree, were 2-3 for a 40-36-1 total.
Luigi’s SuperContest picks would have been Packers +5 (thanks to Rodgers’ injury), Oakland +7, and then there was a large drop to Saints -3, Panthers -2.5, and Tampa +1.5 (the next game in was Eagles -3.5). Those picks were 3-1-1, and would have been 4-0-1 if I could ignore the Packers pick. That puts my record at 31-22-2 for 31 points. Yoshi 1 would have gone with the Packers, Chargers -1.5, Oakland, Chiefs +8, and Vikings +12.5 (next game in: Browns +5.5). Those picks were 1-4 regardless of Green Bay for a record of 25-29-1. Yoshi 2 had the Packers, Oakland, Vikings, Jacksonville +7, and Tampa (edging Titans +2.5, Saints -3, and Chiefs +8). Those picks would be 2-3 for a total of 29-25-1.
Bill Simmons is up next:
|home||away||Simmons Spread||Simmons||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2|
Using his lines, Bill Simmons went 5-8-2. Luigi went 6-7-2, Yoshi 1 went 2-11-2, and Yoshi 2 went 6-7-2. That makes the counts Bill 58-69-5, Luigi 67-60-5, Yoshi 1 66-61-5, and Yoshi 2 62-65-5. Like last week, some close calls on the exact number made differences, like getting Chicago at -3 instead of -3.5 or Saints -3.5 instead of -3, and apparently Carolina -3 if you could have maybe found them at -4 somewhere for a push.
Here are the moneyline picks:
|home||away||Home Line||Away Line||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2|
Luigi only skipped three games, which is unusual, but went 7-5 for a positive week. Yoshi 1 came to vastly different conclusions and had a losing week and Yoshi 2 also had a positive week with very similar picks to Luigi.
And I haven’t been keeping track of the over/under picks because the model isn’t very good, but here are the predictions anyway as usual:
|home||away||Over/Under||Luigi||Yoshi 1||Yoshi 2|